Hi! I'm Sean Zerillo, Action Network's Senior MLB Analyst, and this post will house my player futures models, powered by our new PRO baseball betting tool, B.A.R.T.O.L.O.
Below, you can check out my projected end-of-season rankings for the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year markets in either league, based on a Monte Carlo simulation of blended end-of-season projections, weighted by data points that strongly correlate with vote share for recent winners. Check out my preseason awards guide for more information on my awards methodology.
Below, click on the expanded view, or on any individual player to see a more in-depth statistical profile — both current and projected — for each candidate.
These projections will update daily, and you can use them to identify edges in these player awards markets.
Additionally, you can get all this and more by checking out Opening Pitch, which houses the official B.A.R.T.O.L.O. model — that’s where you’ll find my daily projections and live input data for every MLB game.
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American League MVP
July 29 Update:
- Bobby Witt Jr. doesn't have a timetable for his return from back tightness (he also sprained his MCL in June), but the Royals' shortstop has begun to amp up baseball activities. Rest of season projections have Witt playing around 45 of the Royals' 54 remaining games, but he now projects to finish behind Yordan Alvarez in fWAR (projected 7.1 to 7.0; currently trails 5.3 to 4.7) for the first time all season. The Royals are pacing for a near 100-loss season, and have no reason to rush Witt back until he's at full health.
- Winning the triple crown hasn't always been predictive for winning league MVP — Ted Williams famously won the triple crown twice (1942 and 1947) while losing the AL MVP vote to a pair of Yankees. Still, the primary stat aside from WAR that determines MVP winners is OPS. Alvarez not only leads the AL in WAR, but he also leads Ben Rice and the remainder of the AL Field by 150 points in OPS. Yordan currently projects as my biggest favorite among the main awards categories — our preseason longshot ticket (+3500) is in a good spot.
- Dillion Dingler deserves a bit more love as one of the best players — and as maybe the best catcher — in baseball. He currently ranks third among MLB players in fWAR (4.8).
National League MVP
July 31 Update:
- I recommended Pete Crow-Armstrong at +230 earlier this week. He currently leads the NL in fWAR (7.2), even if you combine Shohei Ohtani's production as a hitter (3.2) and pitcher (3.0), and also projects to finish ahead of Ohtani at season's end (9.0 to 8.5).
- Ohtani is currently nursing a left knee injury and a biceps issue that has prevented his return to the mound, and he was also a healthy scratch as a DH on Thursday against the Mariners. Rest-of-season projections have Ohtani making five starts (and generating 0.8 WAR). I think he may only get two (with some bullpen work on the side) to ramp up for the playoffs. And if the knee or arm injury worsens, the Dodgers — who lead the NL West by more than 10 games — can put him in bubble wrap until October.
- Still, the market has crashed on PCA, and if you did buy in on the Cubs' center fielder at a good price, keep a close eye on Ohtani's odds, offensive production, and rehab progression to potentially lock in a profit; I still project Ohtani near 60%, and would currently bet him up to -135, but if you're patient and wait until closer to when he next pitches, you may get a better number.
- Like Dingler, Marlins' shortstop Otto Lopez has quietly turned into one of the best players in baseball (fifth in fWAR, one spot ahead of James Wood), and deserves more recognition as one of the best players at his position.
American League Cy Young
July 31 Update:
- Our preseason ticket on Dylan Cease (+4000) is in a decent spot, as he projects to match Cam Schlittler in fWAR by season's end (currently trails by 0.4 but starts on Friday). Still, he will likely have a slightly worse ERA and WHIP in fewer innings pitched, although with more strikeouts. Cease missed a few starts in May and June, which may ultimately cost him the award — he probably needs Schlittler to miss a little time or to get blown up in a start to take the lead.
- Schlittler threw 149 innings combined between the minors and majors last season, so I'm not worried about a potential innings limit.
- Parker Messick (3.3 WAR, third in AL) may get shut out of hardware in two different categories as a rookie, but he is already one of the best pitchers in baseball.
- Despite the projected edge on Tarik Skubal, I would not consider betting him until after the trade deadline; if he gets dealt to the National League, that ticket is immediately dead (and may be anyway considering his injury-limited stat line this season).
National League Cy Young
July 31 Update:
- The Brewers have begun to curtail the workload for Jacob Misiorwski, who, at 120 innings, is already approaching his workload from last season (129 innings between Triple-A and the majors). He doesn't have a massive WAR lead over Cristopher Sanchez (4.8 to 4.4) or even Paul Skenes (3.8), but provided he maintains a sub-2.00 ERA and ranks among the strikeout leaders at season's end, his WAR Total (and innings differential relative to the field) may not matter to voters.
- Sanchez projects as the NL WAR leader, with Skenes just behind him. Both pitchers have tailed off from their early-season form (4.4 ERA for Sanchez and 4.55 for Skenes since June 1), but neither is out of the Cy Young race yet. Sanchez may finish with 40 more innings pitched than Misiorowski, and Sanchez, Skenes, or Jesus Luzardo (3.5 WAR, fourth in NL; third in NL in strikeouts) are the potential bets in this category if you are looking to zag away from the favorite.
American League Rookie of the Year
July 31 Update:
- I gave out Kevin McGonigle at +600 in the preseason, and he currently ranks fourth among position players in AL WAR (4.2) and seventh in MLB, nearly two wins ahead of Munetaka Murakami (2.6) and one ahead of Messick (3.3).
- If Murakami hadn't gotten hurt, this would have been an elite three-man race, but he probably needs to approach 40 homers (22 current, projected as high as 37) to make voters consider not voting for the WAR leader.
- Messick may take the lead if McGonigle gets hurt. But with elite plate discipline, the Tigers' infielder is already one of the most consistent, high-floor hitters in baseball (166 wRC+ in March/April, 91 in May, 142 in June, 135 in July).
National League Rookie of the Year
July 31 Update:
- I also recommended JJ Wetherholt at +600 in the preseason, and he currently ranks fifth among position players in NL WAR (3.9) and 9th in MLB. He has double the WAR total as the closest NL hitter (1.9 for T.J. Rumfield), but the Mets' Nolan McLean (2.6) has started to surge (2.2 ERA since June 1).
- If I didn't have a Wetherholt ticket, I'd be structuring a position where I'd win if either he or McLean takes the award.
- Sal Stewart has gained a lot of traction lately, but his WAR total is dragged down as a below-average defensive first baseman (-3 DRS) with a solid bat (113 wRC+). In contrast, Wetherholt is one of the best defenders in baseball (13 DRS, ninth in MLB) and a comparable hitter (110 wRC+) at a position where it's more difficult to find above-average bats.
