Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Picks, Predictions: There’s Betting Value On This Friday Over/Under (May 20)
Logan Riely/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Bregman.
- The Houston Astros take on the Texas Rangers again in a Lone Star State showdown on Friday night.
- Both offenses seem to have the advantage as Martin Perez takes the mound for the Rangers and Cristian Javier counters for the Astros.
- Check out MLB betting analyst Nick Shlain's picks and predictions based on Astros vs. Rangers odds in his preview below.
Rangers vs. Astros Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Astros defeated the Rangers, 5-1, in Game 1 of this Texas showdown series in Houston Thursday night. Game 2 will be in the national spotlight on Apple TV+ Friday night.
Martin Perez takes the mound for the Rangers, while the Astros counter with Christian Javier. Both teams boast pretty solid offenses, as the Astros come in eighth in the league in runs scored and the Rangers enter 17th.
Who will get the job done in this rivalry game?
Rangers Have Advantage at the Plate
Last season, Javier’s xFIP sat at 4.69, and this year, it’s 4.70. While he doesn’t allow much power, he does allow fly balls (48% GB% since 2021).
He also has just a 24% K% against left-handed hitters since the start of last year compared to 37% against right-handed hitters. The Rangers should have at least five left-handed hitters in the lineup in Brad Miller, Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun, Nathaniel Lowe and Jonah Heim.
Javier gave up seven earned runs in just 3.2 innings in his last start, which was also on the road. The Rangers offense should have the advantage here.
Astros Offense Crushes Lefties
Perez’s xFIP came in at 4.68 last year, but it’s 4.25 this year. His ISO allowed to right-handed batters was .181 last year, but it’s 0.74 in 2022.
No matter how much better Perez has been in seven starts this year compared to last year, the Astros still have a bunch of hitters who crush left-handed pitching. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel and Chas McCormick all have ISOs against left-handed pitching above .200 since the beginning of last year.
Alex Bregman’s holds a career ISO of .255 against left-handed pitching, and Jeremy Pena’s sits at .250 32 at-bats .
The Astros offense should also have the advance here against Perez.
I like the over here at 8.
The Rangers offense has been getting it together lately, while Javier has fallen apart. Houston also boasts a top-10 lineup in a good power matchup for almost everyone in their lineup.
Not having the hook here is important, and with the model I use projecting this game for nearly 10 runs, I would bet this over at 8 runs up to -130.
Pick: Over 8 (-110 | Play to -130)