The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 18, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -210 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +170 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Yankees Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+100, play to -105)
My Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet is on New York to cover the run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 9 100o / -120u | +170 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 9 100o / -120u | -210 |
- Blue Jays vs Yankees moneyline: Blue Jays +170, Yankees -210
- Blue Jays vs Yankees over/under: 9 (+100o / -120u)
- Blue Jays vs Yankees spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-120), Yankees -1.5 (+100)
Blue Jays vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| LHP Patrick Corbin (TOR) | Stat | LHP Ryan Weathers (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.93/6.09 | ERA / xERA | 3.00/4.21 |
| 4.17/4.56 | FIP / xFIP | 3.30/2.85 |
| 8.2% | K-BB% | 22.7% |
| 36.4% | GB% | 44.2% |
| .324 | BABIP | .287 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 101 | Location+ | 114 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
It's a homecoming for New York native Patrick Corbin, who draws the start in this series opener from the Bronx.
The fact that Corbin continues to trick MLB teams into giving him starts is a minor miracle. The now 36-year-old has a 3.93 ERA in seven starts.
Not bad, right? Well, it won't last for long, as his xERA is 6.09 with a 4.17 FIP. His FIP is lower due to his strong 0.79 HR/9. He doesn't strike anyone out, posting a 15% strikeout rate with a 17.5% whiff rate. The only chance Corbin has of pitching well is if teams hit the ball hard on the ground, as he throws his sinker 33% of the time.
The Blue Jays' offense is in a bad spot right now. In May, they rank 22nd in MLB with an 87 wRC+. Putting the ball in play is still their DNA, punching out just 18% of the time this month.
However, Toronto isn't making good contact, sitting 11th in ground ball rate and 24th in hard-hit rate. Making contact is nice, but it doesn't matter as much if the contact is weak.
The harsh reality is that the Blue Jays' offense needs Vlad Guerrero Jr. to get on track. Guerrero Jr. hit his third homer of the year on Sunday — and the Blue Jays won. In all, his ISO remains under .100, his lowest by far, and he's still hitting below .150 for the month.
While Guerrero Jr. has struggled in May, it's been a coming-out party for Kazuma Okamoto, who has five homers and a 162 wRC+.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The Yankees will send Ryan Weathers to the hill with an extra day of rest, as he was supposed to pitch yesterday. In his first year in the Big Apple, Weathers has pitched to a strong 3.00 ERA, but his 4.21 xERA and 3.30 FIP point to possible regression.
The batted ball data for Weathers is worrisome. He sits in the 15th percentile in barrel rate and 33rd in hard-hit rate, which leads to a shaky 1.20 HR/9. On the bright side, that's lower than last year's 1.64, and the Blue Jays don't have the thump to expose his weakness.
He will need to get more creative here. Weathers is best at striking out hitters, running a 10.80 K/9 — one of the best marks in MLB. The Blue Jays will sell out to put the ball in play, even at the expense of quick at-bats. He needs to put the ball in spots where Toronto will swing, but avoid doing real damage.
New York has an elite rotation, but it also has an elite lineup, ranking second in MLB with a 122 wRC+ this month. They run a strong 12% walk rate and are top five in long balls.
Sure, the Yankees are very lefty-heavy, but Aaron Boone has some platoon magic he can work with. Amed Rosario will play third over Ryan McMahon, and Paul Goldschmidt, who has found the fountain of youth, will play first with Ben Rice DH'ing.
Remember when Aaron Judge started slow? Yeah, that's a thing of the past. He has a 185 wRC+ with a 20% walk rate and four homers in May. He's still the best hitter in the world.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
From a handicap standpoint, the Yankees laying -1.5 runs at plus money is a strong play. Corbin should struggle with this dominant New York lineup, and this Blue Jays offense is in a tough spot.
The one concern is the Yankees' bullpen, as we saw on Sunday with David Bednar blowing a three-run save in the ninth. Let's just hope the Yankees build enough cushion to avoid another bullpen meltdown from Bednar, Camilo Doval, and others.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+100, play to -105)
