Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, August 30.
Across 25 editions of this column, Minion has recorded a 167-141-3 overall betting record, good for a whopping 43.9 units of profit.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- CJ Abrams Over 2.5 HRR
- Mariners F5 ML
- Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 HRR
- Guardians F5 ML
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
- Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 HRR
- Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 TB
- Lawrence Butler Double
Marlins vs Nationals Pick
The Nationals will host the Marlins on Sunday afternoon in the third of a four-game homestand at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
30-year-old right-hander Janson Junk will make the start for Miami in what should be a very difficult matchup against a deep lineup.
Junk is running a 4.21 ERA this season across his 20 appearances (46 ER across 98 IP). He hasn’t been great, and there are plenty of Washington hitters who match up nicely against Junk.
But my favorite of that group is CJ Abrams.
In eight lifetime head-to-head at-bats against Junk, Abrams has four hits, including a double and a triple, and no strikeouts.
These are also two players with significant platoon splits. Junk has allowed a .349 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season (.276 to righties), while Abrams has a 150 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (94 against lefties).
Also, Abrams has simply been surreal this year. He’s already hit 29 homers and driven in 92 runs, both marks that rank among the top-10 hitters in baseball.
Picks: CJ Abrams Over 2.5 HRR
Mariners vs Blue Jays Pick
The Blue Jays and Mariners will square off on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game set at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Logan Gilbert will take the mound for Seattle, while Toronto will trot out Max Scherzer.
Gilbert has been one of the league’s best pitchers in 2026, running a 3.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 162 strikeouts. He’s the model of consistency in this Seattle lineup.
Meanwhile, it’s the end of the line for Scherzer — he’s posted a 7.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across his 50 frames this season.
I have a feeling that the M’s jump out to an early lead behind Gilbert and against Scherzer.
I also expect Julio Rodriguez to be a big part of that plan — J-Rod is 2-for-7 lifetime off Scherzer with a home run.
Picks: Mariners F5 ML | Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 HRR
Royals vs Guardians Pick
The Guardians will host the Kansas City Royals on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Parker Messick will start for Cleveland, while Seth Lugo will toe the rubber for Kansas City.
In just his second MLB season, Messick has been fantastic, running a 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, both marks that rank among the top-10 qualified starting pitchers. He’s an elite swing-and-miss guy (26% strikeout rate) with an elite batted-ball profile (5% barrel rate allowed).
On the other hand, Lugo is starting to regress in his age-36 season, running a 4.61 ERA this season — he’s allowed 19 earned runs over his past 26 innings pitched (6.41 ERA across five starts).
The Guardians should jump out to an early lead behind a massive starting pitching advantage.
Picks: Guardians F5 ML
Padres vs Rays Pick
The Rays and Padres will duke it out on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game interleague set at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay. Drew Rasmussen will start for Tampa Bay, while Robbie Ray will take the mound for the visiting side.
Tampa’s rotation has been rock-solid this season, and Rasmussen is no exception. He’s running a 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP across 140 innings pitched so far this season.
That said, I’m expecting some regression down the stretch. He’s approaching his career-high in innings pitched (150 last year), and he’s been one of the luckier BABIP pitchers in baseball (.254).
Fernando Tatis Jr. could force that regression.
Tatis has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since the All-Star break, batting .306 with 44 hits, 30 runs, 12 home runs, and 32 RBIs across just 37 games played. It’s safe to say that he’s reclaimed his spot as one of baseball’s premier sluggers.
Rasmussen throws a lot of four-seam fastballs (29% usage), while Tatis has posted a whopping 54% hard-hit rate against such pitches.
I think he smacks one of those fastballs on Sunday in Tampa.
Picks: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB
Rangers vs Brewers Pick
Kumar Rocker hasn’t lived up to the hype so far, running a 4.41 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP. He hasn’t shown great command of his arsenal, and he’s lost nearly two ticks of average velocity on his fastball (94.7 MPH) since he debuted in 2024 (96.3).
Rocker throws a lot of fastballs, including a sinker (30% usage), cutter (14% usage) and four-seamer (11% usage), but none have been very effective.
That’s a problem against Chourio, who is slugging .557 against fastballs this season with a wOBA over .400.
Chourio is in great form, having smashed two homers just a few days ago.
I expect that heater to continue on Sunday afternoon.
Picks: Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
Orioles vs A's Pick
37-year-old right-hander Chris Bassitt is set to take the mound for the Orioles on Sunday afternoon as Baltimore prepares to square off with the Athletics at their temporary Triple-AAA home at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
Bassitt has struggled this season across his 74 innings (4.74 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), and I feel like he’s in for another tough outing in the hitter’s paradise that is Sutter Health.
I think Lawrence Butler has a great matchup against Bassitt and is poised to take advantage.
Despite a tough start to the season, Butler has started to find his stride at the plate, having recorded a hit in 14 of his past 15 games.
There’s also the classic lefty-on-righty matchup issue for Bassitt — he’s allowed a .405 wOBA to Southpaws this season, while Butler has a whopping .983 OPS and 171 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the month of August.
Even better, Butler is 4-for-9 lifetime off Bassitt with a whopping 99 MPH average exit velocity on batted balls.
I expect a massive day for Law Dog on Saturday and am betting him every which way.
Picks: Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 HRR | Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 TB | Lawrence Butler Double
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, August 30
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- CJ Abrams Over 2.5 HRR
- Mariners F5 ML
- Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 HRR
- Guardians F5 ML
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
- Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 HRR
- Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 TB
- Lawrence Butler Double
