Tuesday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: Our 5 Featured Picks, Including Anthony Rizzo & Jacob deGrom (Aug. 2)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets star Jacob deGrom.
Tuesday's Major League Baseball slate features 16 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the odds board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach the latest MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Tuesday, Aug. 2
Anthony Rizzo — Under 1.5 Hits + Walks
We have second matchup of this three-game series with the New Yankees hosting the Seattle Mariners. We are fading a few Yankees' hitters in this game since they're slated to go against right-hander Logan Gilbert.
Through 21 starts, Gilbert is 10-4 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP overall. Entering this game after two consecutive dominant starts against the Housotn Astros, Gilbert could find more success despite facing a powerful offense.
The first New York hitter we're fading is Anthony Rizzo. While Rizzo has homered in three consecutive games, he has gone under this total in nine of his last 12 contests.
When facing right-handers, Rizzo possesses a mere .233 BA this season. Rizzo has never faced Gilbert prior to this matchup, so It could take a few at-bats to figure him out.
Aaron Hicks — Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other New York hitter we are fading is Aaron Hicks. Like Rizzo, Hicks has never faced Gilbert and will probably need a few looks at him.
Additionally, Hicks is riding a cold streak as he has failed to record a hit in each of his last five games and in eight of his last 11 outings. Hicks' metrics are just as poor as his surface-level stats as he possesses a mere .313 xwOBA, .225 xBA, and .340 xSLG overall.
When facing righties this season, Hicks possesses a .224 batting average.
Jarred Kelenic — Under 0.5 Total Bases
We are also fading a few Seattle hitters, as they're slated to go against right-hander Jameson Taillon. Through 20 starts, Taillon is 10-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season.
Like Gilbert, Taillon also enters this matchup in good form. Over his last three starts, Taillon is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.06 WHIP overall.
The first Mariners hitter we are fading is Jarred Kelenic. Entering this game in poor form, Kelenic has failed to record a hit in each of his last five games and in 10 of his last 13 contests.
Kelenic's metrics certainly do not point to positive regression as he possesses a troubling .229 xwOBA, .143 xBA, and .280 xSLG. When facing right-handers this season, Kelenic is batting a whopping .130 average.
J.P. Crawford — Fantasy Score Under 5.5
The other Mariners hitter we're fading is J.P. Crawford. Going under this total in each of his last four games, Crawford has started to enter a mini-slump.
Breaking out of it against Taillon might be a tall task. In his one game against Taillon, Crawford registered a single and a walk for five fantasy points.
Not only did he go under this total in that game, but his metrics suggest that he should not have done any better than that as he produced a .132 xBA, .132 xSLG, and .313 xwOBA.
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Jacob DeGrom — Under 6 Strikeouts
Jacob DeGrom makes his season debut when the New York Mets take on the Washington Nationals. This play is certainly not a fade of DeGrom by any means, rather a fade of the amount of innings the Mets will let him go.
New York is currently in first place in the NL East and have World Series aspirations. This one game against Washington is meaningless, so they'll be extremely cautious and protective of DeGrom as they want him in full gear come October.
I would be shocked if DeGrom goes any further than four innings, and while It is possible he racks up seven strikeouts over those 12 outs, It is more likely that he does not.
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