White Sox vs. Twins Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Carlos Rodón vs. José Berríos (Tuesday, July 6)
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins.
- The White Sox and Twins meet again Tuesday for the clubs' fifth game of the last eight calendar days.
- Tuesday's matchup features a stellar pitching matchup between Carlos Rodon of Chicago and Jose Berrios of Minnesota, but MLB analyst Mike Ianniello explains why the over deserves consideration.
- Below, check out his full MLB betting preview for White Sox vs. Twins.
White Sox vs. Twins Odds
|White Sox Odds||-115|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Chicago White Sox sit atop the AL Central with a six-game division lead and 13.5-game lead over the last-place Minnesota Twins. These two teams will play six games in nine days, after the White Sox swept the Twins in Chicago just last week.
Now, the matchup has shifted to Minnesota. The Twins were able to take the first game of this series on Monday night and will have their ace on the mound Tuesday. Today’s game features the best pitching matchup of the MLB slate as Carlos Rodón duels José Berríos.
Chicago White Sox
White Sox Starting Pitcher, Carlos Rodón (LHP)
A former third overall pick, Carlos Rodón (LHP) has finally turned into an All-Star pitcher and is in the midst of the best season of his career. In 14 starts, Rodón ranks third in the American League with a 2.37 ERA, and he leads leads all AL pitchers with a 3.2 WAR.
Rodón’s 13.12 K/9 rate is the best in the AL and the second-highest in all of baseball — only behind that deGrom guy. He has two phenomenal pitches, his fastball and slider, each of which has been dominant. Rodón’s slider has a 58.3 K% and is allowing just a .093 batting average. In terms of Run Value, his fastball has been the single best pitch by any pitcher in baseball.
White Sox Offense
Behind Rodón and Chicago’s terrific pitching staff, the team also flaunts a great offense. Chicago ranks fifth in MLB in runs per game, batting average, wOBA and wRC+ this season.
Over the last week, Andrew Vaughn is batting .423 with a 1.145 OPS. Jose Abreau (.357), Leury Garcia (.357), Tim Anderson (.323) and Gavin Sheets (.320) have all been on fire too. As a result, the White Sox lead the league in runs and OPS over the last seven days.
Twins Starting Pitcher, Jose Berríos (RHP)
Minnesota’s ace Jose Berríos (RHP) has been the lone bright spot in a struggling Twins rotation. With a 7-2 record, Berríos is the only Twins pitcher more than a game over .500. If he maintains his 3.52 ERA is the lowest of his career; if he maintains that ERA for the rest of the year, then 2021 will mark his fifth straight season with an ERA of 4.00 or better.
As good as Berríos has been on the surface, he does have some red flags. His 4.34 xERA is much higher than his actual 3.52 ERA. Furthermore, his xwOBA of .325 and xBA of .254 are both higher than his actual .301 wOBA and .238 batting average against.
The Twins sit in last place in the division, but that is not due to lack of offense: Minnesota ranks top-10 in MLB in batting average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The Twins also rank third in the league with 121 home runs.
Even at 41-years old, Nelson Cruz is still the star of this lineup. He is batting .306 with a .952 OPS and leads the team in hits, home runs and RBIs. Cruz has missed the last two games with a bad cough, and Minnesota needs him back with Byron Buxton on the IL and Josh Donaldson dealing with a hamstring injury.
White Sox vs. Twins Pick
Does this feel like déjà vu? Because we just saw this game on July 1. Rodón and Berríos squared off just five days ago, and the White Sox came away with an 8-5 victory.
Despite this seeming like a pitcher’s duel on paper, neither pitcher looked great last week. Rodón allowed four runs and six hits five innings, with all his earned runs against coming in that fifth inning.
Berríos was also tuned up for 10 hits and four runs (three earned) in five innings and did not record a single strikeout. He only generated five swings-and-misses out of 89 total pitches.
Rodón’s best pitch is his fastball, but Minnesota ranks first in MLB against fastballs. Berríos’s best pitch is his sinker, and the White Sox are seventh in the league against sinkers. So, both offenses can handle each of the opposing pitcher’s best stuff.
Despite the solid pitching matchup, I am going to side with the offenses here. Both of these teams have top-10 offenses and have been red-hot at the plate. The over is 25-14-2 in Target Field this season. When these two teams have squared off, they have combined to average 12.6 runs per game, and the over has gone 8-2.
Pick: Over 8. Play to over 8.5 (-115).
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