Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 331 (Saturday, September 19)

Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja Odds

Check out the Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja prediction for UFC 331 on Saturday, September 19, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Before fighting Joshua Van for the first time, Alexandre Pantoja was seemingly on his way to flyweight GOAT status. He had won five straight title fights, with mounting calls for him to challenge for the bantamweight belt despite an up-and-coming crop of flyweight challengers. Pantoja's potential final challenge at 125lbs was Van, who at the time had just turned 24 years old.

We know how that one ended, with Pantoja badly injuring his arm less than 30 seconds into the fight. Now, we're hopefully going to see that fight play out in its entirety, but is the 36-year-old Pantoja the same fighter following his injury?

Here's my Van vs. Pantoja pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Pantoja's five flyweight title wins trail only Demetrius Johnson (12) for the most all time, with a strong case that Pantoja faced tougher competition for much of that run. Flyweight is deep enough that the division was never truly "cleaned out" under Pantoja, but it felt like Josh Van and/or Tatsuro Taira might be the last real tests for Pantoja before getting into rematch territory.

Pantoja was more than a -200 favorite heading into that fight, with the belief that his grappling would be enough to control, if not finish, the young striker. Before we got a chance to see it, Van caught a head kick and Pantoja planted his arm awkwardly while falling, dislocating his elbow.

Pantoja is making a fairly quick turnaround, with the rematch coming about nine months after the initial injury. Reports at the time said it wasn't as bad as it looked, which turned out to be the case given the fairly quick turnaround.

My concerns for Pantoja aren't so much the arm itself, but what kind of form he'll be in following at least some time off. Pantoja's game is dependent on pushing a fast, aggressive pace in both striking and grappling, an ability we'd expect to diminish with age even under the best of circumstances.

What makes this fight so compelling is that both men are defensively excellent where their opponent is strong. Van has good-not-great 75% takedown defense in the UFC, but excels at escaping back to his feet when he is grounded. Against another elite grappler, Tatsuro Taira, he was taken down eight times on 21 attempts, but that converted to just over 10 minutes of control time for Taira, and Van was up on two of three scorecards (with the third being a tie) before his fifth-round knockout finish.

Even when Van isn't immediately escaping, his butterfly hooks and deep half guard offense leave opponents off balance from top control, limiting the amount of damage they're able to land. Van actually landed more significant strikes on the ground than Taira, despite having about nine fewer minutes of control time. Van has been submitted just once, in his 3rd pro fight as a 20-year-old, and dealt with the submission threats of Taira well.

Pantoja's grappling game is based around chasing back takes, which limits the amount of damage he's able to do while he hunts rear naked chokes. Van's get-ups are ideal for limiting back takes, unlike many fighters who are more willing to turtle in an effort to escape. Either way, even if Pantoja ends up on Van's back during some rounds, he might not win the frame due to a lack of damage.

At the same time, Pantoja's only "knockout" loss was the arm injury against Van, and he's been knocked down just once in 18 UFC fights despite a sub-50% striking defense rate. Van's best attribute is his boxing, where he has elite speed and volume, as well as solid power for flyweight.

Pantoja's typical approach is to lure opponents into planting their feet and brawling, before switching the script and initiating a takedown. With Van generally willing to stand in the pocket and throw combinations, he could find himself caught off guard on some takedown attempts.

Van vs. Pantoja Pick, Prediction

While I stand by all of the analysis above, the big issue is that it was based on what we've seen from both fighters so far. Van won't be 25 years old until next month, and is continually adding wrinkles to his game, especially in the grappling department. His escapes early in his career were far riskier and less technical than what we saw out of him against Taira, as one example.

On the other hand, Pantoja is 36, has relied heavily on a granite chin in striking exchanges, and even at his peak was likely a half-step slower than Van on the feet. With his injury and time off, that discrepancy is likely to be even wider this time around.

I expect Pantoja to get some takedowns here, especially early in the fight, but largely not do enough to swing rounds while getting outpaced on the feet. A late Van knockout could certainly materialize due to his pace and volume, but he should gradually pull away even if he's unable to finish the fight or drop Pantoja.

I'm taking the champ straight up to defend his belt, a bet I logged at -128 on Monday in the free Action App. The line has moved a bit since then, but the -130 at Hard Rock Bet or -135 at DraftKings is still playable.

I'll also be looking for some live betting options on Van after the first round. He's typically a somewhat slow starter, whereas Pantoja has slowed a bit in extended fights.

Billy's Picks:

• Van -130 (Hard Rock Bet)
• Van Live Bet

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