UFC 331 Predictions, Picks, Projections, Best Bets for Saturday, September 19

In what feels like one of the more straightforward fights to call, Casey O’Neill meets Eduarda Moura in a battle between ranked women’s flyweights. O’Neill is riding an impressive two-fight win streak after suffering an unfortunate injury layoff, while Moura is coming off a loss to current No. 1 contender, Wang Cong.

Moura, to her credit, was on her own two-fight winning streak prior to her last loss. But with Moura’s consistent struggles regarding weight cuts and cardio, the Brazilian tends to find herself flagging late in fights.

So long as O’Neill, who is making clear improvements since working with the Hickman brothers over at Bangtao Muay Thai, doesn’t get blanketed by the Brazilian for two straight rounds, then the Scottish-born fighter should roll here.

O’Neill’s last quick finish (which I don’t believe is super replicable) appears to be painting the market a bit here, so I’ll look to get in on some of the discounted double-chance and alternate round props.

The “by knockout or points” prop is playable on the O’Neill side if you can find it anywhere south of -170; otherwise, I believe that the O’Neill round 3 or decision grouping gives you the most bang for your buck.

The results haven't quite lived up to the expectations, though, with his UFC record standing at 6-4. He's a bit too willing to engage in firefights with more technical strikers, and pure wrestlers have also given him a hard time. Still, his losses have mostly been to top competition, with the last three all coming against ranked middleweights.

Edmen Shahbazyan is also a fighter who hasn't quite lived up to his early career hype. He debuted in the UFC 10 days after his 21st birthday, started 4-0 in the promotion, but has settled in to a 60% (9-6) win rate for the promotion. Like Ferreira, he has all the offensive tools in the world, but has plenty of defense and durability questions.

What ultimately struck me about this fight is how similar both fighters are. Shahbazyan is a bit more technical in the striking department while Ferreira relies more on explosiveness, but outside of that they're both all-offense middleweights with questionable chins. That means this fight is effectively a coin flip in my view, except one side of the coin is paying out as high as +165 odds. As I said on our latest UFC Betting Preview, I'd be happy to take either side of this fight at plus money, but only one side is offering it:

That would be the Ferreira side, with the best line coming via Caesars.