NASCAR Odds, Picks, Predictions for Bristol: The Case For Betting on Kyle Busch at Bristol (Sept. 17)

NASCAR Odds, Picks, Predictions for Bristol: The Case For Betting on Kyle Busch at Bristol (Sept. 17) article feature image

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR driver Kyle Busch pulls into the pit at Darlington Raceway

Kyle Busch announced on Tuesday that he will be driving for Richard Childress Racing in 2023 and beyond. However, before 2023 rolls around, the 2022 NASCAR season still has eight races to go — that includes Saturday night's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET).

Kyle Busch has only one win so far in 2022, but here's why I'm betting on him to make it two.

NASCAR Pick for Bristol

*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon

Books are in near universal agreement on Busch's price at +800 to win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race — he has won three of the last eight Cup Series races on the Bristol concrete, and those eight races also included a runner-up finish as well as two fourth-places finishes.

Over that time, he's led more than 100 laps in half of those races.

Recently, Busch has been fast as well. At Darlington, a fringe comp thanks to its steep banking, Rowdy led 155 laps before blowing an engine while leading late in the race. At the other concrete tracks of Dover and Nashville, he combined to lead 22.4% of the laps.

Rowdy is heading to arguably his best track, while performing at a top level at the most similar tracks on the circuit. My model gives him a 13.8% chance of winning, more than two full percentage points clear of his 11.1% implied odds at 8-1 (convert more betting odds here).

Pick: Kyle Busch to Win +800 | Bet to: +700

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