NASCAR Odds, Picks, Predictions: Giffen’s Best Bet for Sunday’s Food City Bristol Dirt Race (Sunday, April 9)
Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Chris Buescher
The NASCAR Cup Series is going dirt racing once again.
Easter Sunday marks the third annual Food City Bristol Dirt Race (7 p.m. ET, FOX), where drivers get down and dirty for 250 laps on the high banks of Bristol.
There’s been a bit of chaos in both Bristol Dirt races, and with a two-race sample size, it makes it a bit difficult to evaluate certain drivers. That’s why I’m looking at a matchup between two teammates who survived the chaos in both dirt races for my best early bet.
NASCAR Odds, Picks for Bristol Dirt Race
Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing teammates Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski have both completed the full distance at the two dirt races the Cup Series has run.
Keselowski has finished ahead of Buescher in both races. Ordinarily, that’d be a good indicator to back Keselowski here, but the underlying metrics actually point toward Buescher.
The younger Buescher actually ran an average 80.7% of the laps inside the top 15 over the course of the two races. Keselowski, meanwhile, is at just 46.8% in this metric.
In addition, Buescher also topped his team owner in predictive metrics such as quality pass percentage, average running position, and green flag speed in both races.
And that comes despite Keselowski running in a Team Penske Ford back in 2021. That’s when his then-teammates Joey Logano won the race and Ryan Blaney placed eighth – while Keselowski scored a rather fortunate 11th-place finish.
However, I’ll back Buescher, who has run better than Keselowski in both races but hasn’t quite had the finishing results to show for it. DraftKings is hanging this at -105, which isn’t quite where the line should be given Buescher’s advantage in the predictive metrics.
The Bet: Chris Buescher over Brad Keselowski -105 | Bet to: -115
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