Aaron Gordon Player Props | Expert Pick to Bet in Nuggets vs Lakers Game 4 (May 22)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Gordon of the Denver Nuggets prior to a game against the Los Angeles Lakers during the 2023 Western Conference finals.
Nuggets vs. Lakers Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
Aaron Gordon Player Prop & Pick: Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Gordon is a pivotal piece of Denver’s rotation, but his stat-sheet contributions have been trending downward:
Game 1: 18 PRA (12 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists) in 36 minutes
Game 2: 16 PRA (10 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists) in 39 minutes
Game 3: 14 PRA (7 points. 3 rebounds, 4 assists) in 32 minutes
Gordon has spent most of his time guarding the Lakers’ top two offensive threats, Lebron James and Anthony Davis, which takes him out of defensive rebounding position for many of the Lakers’ possessions.
Gordon has pulled down just four defensive rebounds through three games in this series, and the underlying metrics back that up: Per NBA.com’s player tracking data, Gordon is averaging only 6.7 rebound chances in 36.7 minutes per game this series, down from 10.7 rebound chances in 30.3 minutes per game during the regular season.
Guarding James and Davis also saps Gordon’s energy on the offensive end, and his numbers have taken a hit from both a volume and efficiency standpoint. His Usage Rate is down from 21.1% in the regular season to 14.1% in this series, and his shooting splits are down from 56/35/61 in the regular season to 48/0/58 this series.
Gordon could also see a few less minutes in Game 4 after Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone made the adjustment of benching Gordon for the entire fourth quarter of Game 3 so that Davis has no one to roam off of defensively. The Nuggets outscored the Lakers by nine points in the quarter. So we could see them go back to that again in Game 4.
Even if they don’t, Gordon has posted 20 or fewer points/rebounds/assists in seven of his past eight postseason games and 18 or fewer in six of his past eight. I would bet this to 18.5.
Pick: Aaron Gordon u20.5 PTS + REB + AST (-135)
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