College football’s 2018-19 bowl season kicks off on Saturday with five games that will carry bettors from 1:30 p.m. ET to after midnight. That’s a full day.

Below we’ve compiled all our bowl betting guides for Saturday in one place. They’re available absolutely free in The Action Network app.

JUMP TO: ULL-Tulane (-3.5) | North Texas-Utah State (-7.5) | Arizona State-Fresno State (-6) | EMU-Ga. Southern (-3) | MTSU-App State (-7)

And don’t forget to join our free bowl betting contest. Pick every bowl game against the spread for a chance to win $500.

College Football Bowl Betting Odds, Picks for Saturday (December 15)

Cure Bowl Betting: UL Lafayette vs. Tulane

Odds: Tulane -3.5
Over/Under: 59
Date: Saturday, Dec. 15
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS Sports Network

Two Louisiana schools will head down I-10 to Orlando to meet in the Cure Bowl to kick off the 2018-19 FBS postseason.

UL Lafayette has been tested this season against Alabama, Mississippi State and Appalachian State twice, while Tulane finished strong under a new quarterback and became bowl eligible on a successful do-or-die 2-point conversion to end the season.

ULL ranks 12th nationally in yards per play on offense but 96th on defense, while Tulane ranks 64th on offense and 57th on defense.

Odds Movement for Tulane-UL Lafayette

By Danny Donahue

Tulane has drawn the slight majority of bets (57%) and an even higher percentage of actual money (70%), but this line is sitting in the same spot at which it opened. A few books did drop the line to -3 for brief moments during the past week, but ultimately oddsmakers have felt more comfortably listing the line with a hook at +3.5.

The market activity relating to the total has arguably been even more of a yawn. Many books have yet to budge the number from its opener of 59. Those that have though, have done so by dropping the number to 58.5 despite a significant majority of bettors (67%) playing the over (see live betting data here).

Cure Bowl Trends to Know

By John Ewing

Since 2005, underdogs in bowl games have gone 239-218-6 (52%) against the spread. Dogs of more than field goal have gone 163-136-2 (55%) ATS.

By Evan Abrams

Tulane enters bowl season on a three-game ATS losing streak. Over the last five years, teams who are listed as the favorite on at least a three-game ATS losing streak entering bowl season are only 4-8 straight-up and against the spread, failing to cover the spread by 4.1 PPG, including losing four of the last five outright.

Bowl Motivated?

By Stuckey

Both teams should be happy to be here, as neither made a bowl last season.

However, I think Tulane will have a slight motivational edge here, as this will be the first bowl appearance for its 20 seniors who locked up their first and only bowl spot in the final game of the season in dramatic fashion over Navy. Lafayette played in a bowl two years ago.

Look Out for Big Plays

By Steve Petrella

This game pits two of the country’s most explosive offenses against each other. And neither team contains big plays all that well. Here’s how each unit ranks in S&P+’s explosiveness measure:

ULL Offense: 7
Tulane Offense: 5
ULL Defense: 85
Tulane Defense: 113

Both teams rank in the top 20 in percentage of touchdowns that come from 20-plus yards, as well, per CFBAnalytics.com.

How to Bet on College Football: Using Advanced Stats to Handicap Games Read now

But Tulane and ULL do run the ball way more than the national average. That helped Tulane, along with its excellent defense, go under the betting total in nine of 12 games this season. ULL went 6-6-1 to the under.

How Improved Is Tulane’s Offense?

By Steve Petrella

Tulane in its first four games with Jonathan Banks as the starter: 5.81 yards per play.
Tulane’s last eight games, with Justin McMillan as the starter: 5.83 yards per play.

The Green Wave offense has had some monster rushing performances with 300-plus yards against Memphis, Tulsa and South Florida, but hasn’t been consistent week to week. And it hasn’t been consistent in the passing game even with McMillan, who has topped a 50% completion rate or 150 yards in just two of his eight starts. It’s been the defense that’s carried the Green Wave.

Tulane is also breaking in a new play caller in Alex Atkins, who has never held that role before.

ULL is better against the run (78th per S&P+ than the pass (113th). While the Tulane offense has seemed better in the last month, I don’t think it can exploit ULL like some teams have this season.

Bet to Watch for Tulane-UL-Lafayette

By Ken Barkley

The decision for Tulane to start and continue to play Justin McMillan at quarterback proved to be the right one, and really turned its season around. Against poor defenses like East Carolina and Navy, he played well enough, and Tulane somehow got to six wins.

Well, guess who has a defense nearly as bad as Navy, and worse than East Carolina? That’s right, the Ragin’ Cajuns!

Statistically, this will be one of the worst defenses Tulane has played all year. Tulane has a small talent edge overall, as well. The Green Wave are basically dropping down a weight-class for this game, and this line appears to be handicapping their recent play with McMillan, as opposed to the season as a whole.

Stuckey, Locky, Wilson: 3 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet for Bowl Season Read now

Still, strength-of-schedule aside, from a metric standpoint, I struggle to see where the major advantages for Tulane are in this game that would make them more than a 3-point favorite.

If you look at the S&P+ statistical profiles, the unit mismatches that stand out are both in favor of the Ragin’ Cajuns — their offense is reasonably better than Tulane’s defense, and they have an advantage in special teams.

Tulane has also been awful as a short-favorite all season against teams in this talent range. They lost outright to UAB (Green Wave -4), lost outright at home to SMU (Wave -7), and almost lost the finale to Navy were it not for a courageous 2-point call late in the game (Tulane closed -6 in that game, and again didn’t cover).

Neither head coach has prepped for a bowl as the main guy, but Billy Napier comes with the best kind of experience, being on Nick Saban’s staff during a couple title runs. I think on a neutral field, getting more than a field goal with two teams that really appear even on paper, I would take the Cajuns getting more than 3.

Tulane hasn’t justified favoritism in this type of situation all season, even if it is a little more talented.

Barkley’s Pick: ULL +3.5

New Mexico Bowl Betting Odds: Utah State-North Texas

Odds: Utah State -7.5
Over/Under: 67.5
Date: Saturday, Dec. 15
Time: 2 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

JUMP TO: ULL-Tulane (-3.5) | Arizona State-Fresno State (-6) | EMU-Ga. Southern (-3) | MTSU-App State (-7)
One of the best early matchups in the 2018-19 bowl season was tampered a bit when Utah State coach Matt Wells took the Texas Tech job. But the Aggies are one of the five best Group of 5 teams in the country and there’s still a lot to like on both sides of the ball.

North Texas fell short of expectations by missing out on the Conference USA title game when the league was wide open. The Mean Green also went under in all but two games this year despite having an excellent quarterback in junior Mason Fine.

Odds Movement for Utah State-North Texas

By Danny Donahue

Bettors are evenly split on this matchup, with each side drawing 50% of tickets. The line movement wouldn’t serve as an indication of that, however. Utah State has fallen from -11 to -7.5 as 61% of actual dollars wagered have landed on North Texas as news swirls about Utah State’s departures on its coaching staff.

The over/under has also seen some significant movement since opening. After beginning the week at 64.5, it’s risen to 67.5 behind 92% of money on 68% of bets.

Trends to Know for 2018 New Mexico Bowl

By Steve Petrella

North Texas went 1-10-1 to the under this season, while Utah State went 9-3 to the over.

When a team that hit the under in at least two-thirds of its games meets a team that went over in at least two-thirds of its games, the under is 23-13-1 (63.9%) in bowl season since 2005.

By John Ewing

North Texas went 4-8 against the spread this season, so a majority of bettors are laying the points with Utah State. But bad ATS teams (covered in 33% or fewer of games) have been good bets in bowl season: 35-23-1 (60%) ATS since 2005.

Coaching Problems for Utah State?

By Steve Petrella

Utah State coach Matt Wells is off to Texas Tech, and he’s bringing both coordinators and six other assistants with him.

But Utah State’s AD insists Wells will be involved in the game planning for the New Mexico Bowl and that Wells be on the sidelines during the game, though he won’t coach. He expects both coordinators to be involved in game planning, as well.

That’s a really weird situation, especially with the early recruiting signing period deadline on Wednesday. I just don’t see how Wells will have his staff focused on this game while trying to recruit for Texas Tech — obviously the much bigger priority for him now — and it might create even more problems if they’re involved in game planning at all.

Teams lose coaches during bowl season all the time, and interim coaches cover about 50% of games against the spread. But losing so much — basically 80% of your full-time coaches — is concerning.

By Stuckey

On the flip side, I think North Texas will come in fully motivated, as the seniors look to secure their first and only bowl win after losing each of the past two years — including one in blowout fashion last year, 50-30 to Troy.

North Texas Holds Special Teams Edge

By Stuckey

The Mean Green rank No. 5 in S&P+ Special Teams, while Utah State is very average, ranking 66th. Utah State’s punting has been particularly dreadful, which is why it has continued to use two punters, neither of whom has been effective.

As a result, the Aggies rank 114th nationally in net punting average at 34.63 yards. And while kicker Dominic Eberle has a big leg, he has struggled at times, including a 2 for 6 field goal performance in last year’s bowl loss to New Mexico State.

How to Bet on College Football: Using Advanced Stats to Handicap Games Read now

On the other hand, North Texas has done almost everything well on special teams, starting with Arkansas cast-off kicker Cole Hedlund, who has had a fantastic season. The Mean Green’s punting and return units have been strong, too.

If you’re looking for a game changing play on special teams, expect it from the Mean Green. The punting woes in particular could really cause Utah State issues; it almost cost them the game at Colorado State. North Texas will capitalize where the Rams couldn’t.

Neither Team Has Been Tested

By Steve Petrella

These two teams had among the worst strength of schedules in the country this season. Per the Sagarin Ratings, North Texas ranked 139 — it had an easier schedule than nine FCS teams! Utah State wasn’t much better. The Aggies ranked 114th in those same ratings, boosted by losses against Boise State and Michigan State.

Utah State took care of business against a weak schedule, scoring at least 40 points in eight of its other 10 games.

There’s no talent edge (North Texas ranks 101st, Utah State 103rd, per 247Sports) or strength of schedule mismatch that might be creating a difference in perception of these teams, so I’d value them as our ratings do (Utah State -9) before factoring in motivation and coaching.

Bet to Watch

By Ken Barkley

There are a few things I like about North Texas in this spot. First off, whatever value you assign to Matt Wells and almost his entire staff moving from one job to another, it has to be value that benefits North Texas, even if only minimal. While there’s just no way that type of disunity is quantifiable, we can just call it a nice, added bonus.

The unit matchups aren’t terribly uneven, and as you’ve read, both teams strength of schedule was pretty poor. Between all the units, Utah State’s offense has an advantage over North Texas’ defense for sure (48th in S&P+ vs 20th for the Aggies O), but North Texas has a very large edge in special teams.

A couple things stand out in addition to Wells’ quasi-departure: North Texas had a monster losing ATS margin in its final game that stuck in the market’s memory, and that could help explain the inflated number here. But keep in mind, that was against UTSA, one of the worst teams in the conference, with bowl eligibility already secured, on the road. Not exactly a monster motivational spot.

Much like with a few other teams in bowl season (Iowa State, most notably), a very lackluster finish may be stretching this line a little further than it can be. Bowl time generally brings a lot of uncertainty, with coaching staffs, player futures and the like in flux. When that uncertainty seeps into a game, the underdog always deserves a more serious look, and this is one that I think is really live. I’d lean North Texas at the current numbers.

A Moneyline Spot for North Texas?

By Steve Petrella

We’ve shoved it down your throat plenty, but it bears repeating for this game — underdogs win outright much more often in bowl season than they do in the regular season. And it’s been profitable for bettors. Only five or six times this bowl season, based on historical averages, will the favorite win the game but not cover.

Why the Point Spread Hasn’t Mattered When Betting Bowl Game Underdogs Read now

We don’t know how Utah State’s coaching uncertainty will affect the Aggies. But this feels like a game that could go very south for Utah State if that does have a big impact. At better than +250, I think North Texas moneyline makes sense here.

2018 Las Vegas Bowl Betting Odds: Arizona State-Fresno State

Odds: Fresno State -5
Over/Under: 52.5
Date: Saturday, Dec. 15
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

JUMP TO: ULL-Tulane (-3.5) | North Texas-Utah State (-7.5) | EMU-Ga. Southern (-3) | MTSU-App State (-7)
Herm Edwards is looking to cap a surprisingly successful first year in Tempe with a bowl victory, but he’ll have to go through Fresno State.

The Bulldogs have proven themselves as a truly elite Group of 5 team after winning the Mountain West title on the road at Boise State to end the year. Fresno State ranks 33rd in our power ratings (tied for the top G5 spot) and No. 10 in S&P+. It has an excellent quarterback in Marcus McMaryion, who ranks 12th nationally in yards per pass attempt.

Since 2006, the Mountain West has sent its winner to the Las Vegas Bowl to play the Pac-12’s sixth-best team, which has created the narrative that Fresno State should care a lot more. But that hasn’t led to any motivational problems for either conference — the Mountain West is 6-6 against the spread in this game since 2005.

Will Arizona State’s talent edge and body of work against a tough schedule win out, or does Fresno deserve the credit its getting in the market? Let’s dive in.

Odds Movement for 2018 Las Vegas Bowl

By Danny Donahue

As of Wednesday afternoon, this game is on pace to see more bets than any other bowl on Saturday. Of those bets, 64% are playing the favorite, which have accounted for 68% of the money wagered. That support has brought Fresno from -3.5 to as high as -5 around the market.

Early betting action on the total brought the number down from 52.5 to 51.5, but by Tuesday, it had shot back up to 52.5, where it sits now. Fifty-five percent of bettors have taken the under and they’ve accounted for 64% of money wagered.

Key Trend: Fresno Defense Stood Tall on the Road

By Evan Abrams

One of the biggest keys to this game will be Fresno State’s defense, which has allowed just 13.7 points per game this season, tied for the second-lowest mark in the country with Clemson. This season, Fresno State has played seven games away from home and the under is 6-1 in those games, going under the total by 13.6 points per game.

When Fresno is on the road, none of its opponents have scored more than 24 points, with five of the seven scoring fewer than 20 points.

Arizona State Missing Top Target

By Steve Petrella

Arizona State will be without star receiver N’Keal Harry as he prepares for the NFL Draft. That could be a problem against Fresno State’s excellent pass defense. The Bulldogs rank 13th in passing S&P+ defense and 18th in yards per pass attempt allowed.

Mismatch: Fresno Secondary vs. ASU Passing Attack

By Stuckey

Steve already mentioned how the loss of Harry will hurt Arizona State’s passing attack against a very stout Fresno pass defense. (His absence will also hurt in the return game).

That pain will especially be felt on third downs against a Fresno defense that ranks in the top 25 in third-down conversion rate (.33). While ASU’s offense ranked a respectable 49th on third downs (.414), Harry was by far Manny Wilkins’ favorite target when the ASU quarterback looked to extend drives.

Harry had 46 of his 73 receptions go for first downs this season. To put that into perspective, without Harry, the Sun Devils won’t have a receiver suit up who had more than 40 total catches on the season.

Sun Devils Played Tight Games

By Stuckey

Arizona State finished 7-5, but the Sun Devils were in almost every game this season. Their five losses (at Washington, at San Diego State, Stanford, at Colorado, at Oregon) came by a combined 30 points, all within one possession, with four on the road.

By Steve Petrella

It’s insane how close Arizona State games were this season. Nine of its 12 finished by a margin of seven points or fewer. The last three games were decided by a total of six points.

The Sun Devils fared much better as an underdog, too. They were 5-2 against the spread when getting points and 2-3 as a favorite.

Who’s More Motivated?

By Stuckey

I think you have to give a slight edge to Fresno in the motivation department. The Bulldogs are seeking their first ever 12-win season and should want to cap off this great year with a win over a Power 5 team.

Meanwhile, even though some of the Arizona State seniors may be motivated by two bowl losses in the past two seasons, head coach Herm Edwards has hinted that he would rather use this as a development opportunity for his very young team.

While a bunch of freshmen already play on the ASU defense, expect to see a few freshmen get some playing time at some of the skill positions on offense — even potentially at quarterback.

“We’re going forward for setting the schedule for the spring and watching some guys that maybe didn’t get a lot of reps on both sides of the ball, putting them in a position where they can play the game,” Edwards said. “It’s going to be kind of interesting.”

Also, remember that this is Las Vegas, which has no shortage of distractions. I think the very young Sun Devils are at a much higher risk for lacking focus ahead of this bowl, especially since Fresno has already traveled to Vegas this year for a game against UNLV. The Bulldogs won that with ease, 48-3.

Bet to Watch

By Stuckey

Not only do I think Fresno will have more motivation to win and have more familiarity with Las Vegas, it will also recognize Arizona State’s unique 3-3-5 defense, which can really stump opposing offenses when seeing that scheme for the first time.

Arizona State defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales is a disciple of San Diego State coach Rocky Long, and ASU runs a 3-3-5 defense that is very similar to SDSU’s, which Fresno State sees each year in conference play. The blitzes won’t catch them off guard as they do most other teams (it helps to have an offensive line that ranks in the top 10 in Adjusted Sack Rate).

Look for Fresno quarterback Marcus McMaryion to take advantage of the aggressive Arizona State defense with some deep shots to stud receivers KeeSean Johnson and Jamire Jordan — much like Fresno did in wins over SDSU the past two seasons. This is a very vulnerable ASU defense on the back end, as evidenced by its rank of 89th in Passing S&P+.

Stuckey, Locky, Wilson: 3 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet for Bowl Season Read now

And on the other side of the ball, ASU will have to rely on third-team AP All-American running back back Enjo Benjamin and a veteran offensive line. However, the Fresno defense excels at stopping the run, thanks to a superb defensive front. The Bulldogs allow a stingy 3.6 yards per carry and rank No. 5 overall in Rushing S&P+ defense.

I know Arizona State has found ways to hang around all year, but four of their five losses have come by seven points, which is where I think this line should be.

Stuckey’s Pick: I like Fresno State and the under.

A Case for the Under

By Steve Petrella

I think the total is right, but based on each team’s profile, I’d lean under.

ASU plays a bend-don’t-break defense that really limits total possessions in a game. The Sun Devils rank bottom 25 in both offensive drives and opponent’s drives per game. That’s in part because ASU gives up chunk yardage (104th in efficiency), but limits big plays (27th in explosiveness).

ASU is sixth nationally in opponent’s plays per drive at 5.85 — it forces teams to march down the field methodically and drain the clock. Expect Fresno State to move the ball, but not all at once. The Bulldogs are 100th in plays per minute.

On the other side, Fresno’s defense is elite in pretty much every way — top 11 in efficiency, explosiveness, finishing drives and average field position. Without Harry, like we’ve mentioned, the Bulldogs should limit ASU in a lot of ways.

2018 Camellia Betting Odds: Georgia Southern-Eastern Michigan

Odds: Georgia Southern -2.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Date: Saturday, Dec. 15
Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

JUMP TO: ULL-Tulane (-3.5) | North Texas-Utah State (-7.5) | Arizona State-Fresno State (-6) | MTSU-App State (-7)
Eastern Michigan was likely one of the last teams selected for bowl eligibility and will face a tricky test in Georgia Southern’s triple-option offense in the Camellia Bowl.

Georgia Southern went 9-3 after re-discovering its option identity following a 2-10 season in 2017. The Eagles have attempted just 109 passes all year and have five players with at least 300 yards rushing.

EMU had a weird year, all considered. It somehow beat Purdue, then lost four straight games by a total of 16 points, then rebounded to win five of their final six. These Eagles have been to three bowl games in their history — 1971, 1987 and 2016.

Odds Movement for 2018 Camellia Bowl

By Danny Donahue

After opening this game at a pick’em, oddsmakers are now listing Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. Sixty-five percent of bettors and 73% of money playing the Eagles have been behind the line movement.

Perhaps as a result of the low overall ticket count on this game, the total hasn’t seen much significant movement. But 99% of money — a figure that should drop as kickoff approaches — on 54% of bets behind the under have caused the number to fall from 48 to 47.5.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

It has been profitable to bet underdogs in bowl games. It is more profitable to do so in low-total games since they often feature fewer possessions and thus limits the opportunities for the better team (usually the favorite) to pull away.

Underdogs in games with over/under of less than 55 points have gone 123-102-1 (55%) ATS since 2005.

By Evan Abrams

In 2014, Georgia Southern transitioned from the FCS level to FBS, joining the Sun Belt. Since then, Georgia Southern is 34-27 ATS (55.7%), covering the spread by 2.1 PPG.

In the Camellia Bowl, Georgia Southern is currently receiving over 60% of spread tickets. Since 2014, Georgia Southern is 21-14 ATS (60%) when receiving the majority of tickets.

By Stuckey

MAC teams have struggled in bowls: They’re 23-37-3 ATS (38.3%) since 2005, failing to cover by almost five points (-4.68) per game on average. That 23.7% ROI is the lowest among any conference in our database.

MAC teams are 12-16 ATS in the last five years, 9-9 in the last three and went 1-4 last year.

Georgia Southern Has Special Teams Edge

By Stuckey

Georgia Southern has the much more reliable kicker, as Tyler Bass has been steady all season (16-18 FG, 43-43 PAT). Meanwhile, kicking has been an absolute nightmare for EMU, as freshman kicker Chad Ryland is just 12 of 20 on field goal attempts.

Per S&P’s FG value rankings, GSU sits at No. 2 in the country, while EMU comes in at 121. EMU also holds a significant overall special teams rankings advantage of 14 to 107.

Georgia Southern Has Short-Yardage Edge

By Stuckey

Georgia Southern has a big edge in opportunity rate on offense (top 25) vs. EMU defensive opportunity rate (114th). That metric tells you how often a team gains at least four yards on a carry, or holds the opposition to fewer than four yards on defense.

How to Bet on College Football: Using Advanced Stats to Handicap Games Read now

It’s going to be tough for EMU to stop Georgia Southern in short yardage situations, much like it was for them against Army’s triple option attack (10-19 on third down and 4-4 on fourth down).

Meanwhile, EMU should struggle to convert on their third and fourth and shorts, which are just drive and momentum killers. EMU ranks DEAD LAST in the nation on Third and Short Success Rate, while GSU’s defense ranks 11th.

Who Is More Motivated?

By Stuckey

EMU is looking for its first bowl win since the California Bowl in 1987 (its only program bowl win). The Eagles did make a bowl two years ago (their first in nearly 30 years) but came up short against Old Dominion.

After this football program was close to folding at EMU, head coach Chris Creighton has done a remarkable job turning around this team and even secured funding for facilities upgrades. A bowl win will be another step in the right direction in turning around football in Ypsilanti.

Meanwhile, six-time FCS national champion Georgia Southern will make its second ever bowl appearance. It won its first in 2015 against another MAC opponent: Bowling Green — in a 58-27 rout in which the Eagles ran for 452 yards on 68 carries.

Ultimately, I don’t think either team will have a motivational edge. These two teams should want to be here.

Why I’m Betting Georgia Southern

By Collin Wilson

Eastern Michigan brings a great pass defense, which has no value in a game against Georgia Southern’s triple-option attack. Although Eastern Michigan is 14-3 against the spread in non-conference play in recent years and has two weeks to prepare for the option, don’t read into it too much.

Army put up 289 yards of rushing in a game earlier this season and had the ball for 45-plus minutes. Eastern Michigan defensively is 114th in opportunity rate and 88th in stuff rate, indicating there will be issues stopping the Georgia Southern rush attack.

There are other key areas to watch, as both teams excel in limiting big plays. Georgia Southern is 15th defensively in overall IsoPPP, with Eastern Michigan coming in at No. 7 in the same category.

But the biggest matchup is Georgia Southern in Eastern Michigan territory, as the GSU is 12th in finishing drives to an EMU defense that is 16th in finishing drives.

The total is in line with The Action Network projections of 47.5, so no value play can be recommended on the total.

However, with Eastern Michigan having issues all season with teams that excel in rushing the ball, it’s hard to ignore a wager on the Eagles of Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt.

2018 New Orleans Bowl Betting Odds: Appalachian State-Middle Tennessee

Odds: Appalachian State -6.5
Over/Under: 50.5
Date: Saturday, Dec. 15
Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

JUMP TO: ULL-Tulane (-3.5) | North Texas-Utah State (-7.5) | Arizona State-Fresno State (-6) | EMU-Ga. Southern (-3)
Appalachian State won the first ever Sun Belt Championship to earn a spot in the New Orleans Bowl, where it will take on a senior-laden Middle Tennessee State.

App State had a 2.11 yards-per-play differential during the regular season, the sixth-best mark in the country. The Mountaineers didn’t miss a beat under new quarterback Zac Thomas, but did lose star back Jalin Moore for the season in October.

MTSU has been known for offense in the past, but the 46th-ranked defense per S&P+ helped the Blue Raiders go 8-5 against the spread this season. They had covered five straight before losing to UAB in the Conference USA Championship Game.

Odds Movement for Appalachian State-Middle Tennessee

By Danny Donahue

Bets on this game are split exactly 50-50 at the time of writing. And with 54% of the money on Middle Tennessee, this line has fallen off the key number of 7 down to 6.5.

The total features a much more significant bet vs. dollar discrepancy, as the over has drawn 58% of bettors but just 33% of money wagered. With two-thirds of the cash landing on the under, this number has fallen from 50.5 to 50.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

It pays to be contrarian in bowl games. Bettors willing to take unpopular underdogs, like Middle Tennessee State, have returned a profit of +33.76 units since 2005.

By Evan Abrams

There are two types of college football bowl games played at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. There is the December bowl game, which is usually two non-Power 5 schools, and then there is the big New Year’s Six game.

Since 2005, when a bowl game in December is played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the over is 9-3 (75%), profiting bettors 5.5 units, making the Superdome the most profitable stadium for December bowl overs in this span.

Stockstill Should Have Time to Throw

By Stuckey

MTSU quarterback Brent Stockstill will have time to throw the ball, which at times has been an issue this year for an offensive line that ranks 99th in Adjusted Sack Rate (112th on Passing Downs).

App State is not the team that will exploit that deficiency, as the Mountaineers rank 118th in that same category on Passing Downs.

The main question: Can MTSU hit any explosive plays in the passing game against a defense that just doesn’t give up any (rank No. 2 defending passing explosiveness).

Who’s More Motivated?

By Stuckey

If anybody watched the MTSU postgame press conference after their conference title loss, you know the Raiders will be fired up for this game.

Stockstill is 2-5 in bowls since his arrival in Murfreesboro in 2006; one of those wins came at this same bowl in 2009. The Blue Raiders will appear in a bowl for the fourth straight year.

I certainly give the motivational edge to MTSU here against an App State team that lost its head coach and has won bowl games in each of the past three seasons.

By Steve Petrella

App State lost coach Scott Satterfield to Louisville last week, and longtime defensive line coach Mark Ivey will take over for the New Orleans Bowl.

Satterfield’s took coordinators Bryan Brown and Frank Ponce to get a head start on recruiting for the Dec. 19 early signing deadline. Co-offensive coordinator Shawn Clark may call plays and is candidate for the head coaching job.

Satterfield had previously called plays, so this will be Clark’s debut in that regard.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

This is the first Middle Tennessee senior class to play in four straight bowl games, making this an emotional motivator for a roster full of seniors.

Stockstill is making his second trip to the New Orleans Bowl, previously coaching Middle Tennessee in a 2009 victory over Southern Miss. This is the Blue Raiders’ 10th bowl in program history, starting with the Refrigerator Bowl in 1956.

You may hear that Stockstill is 2-5 against the spread in bowl games, but none of them have been as important as this one.

This will be the last game Stockstill will coach his son, senior quarterback Brent Stockstill. Four of the top six wide receivers are also seniors, so this offense should be very motivated.

Why the Point Spread Hasn’t Mattered When Betting Bowl Game Underdogs Read now

Expect plenty of passing in this game, as Middle Tennessee is 111th in standard downs run rate. The key matchup is passing down situations where Middle Tennessee is 10th in explosiveness and the Appalachian State defense is No. 1 in the nation against explosiveness.

The Blue Raiders defense may be able to cause a little havoc, ranking 30th overall in the category and fifth in passing downs sack rate.

Appalachian State has not played a schedule similar to Middle Tennessee, as the Mountaineers schedule ranks 112th, compared to 79th for the Blue Raiders.

Zac Thomas has not seen a defense ranked higher in S&P+ than 46th (where MTSU ranks) since App State’s first game against Penn State.

Collin’s Bet: The wager here is Middle Tennessee State. Appalachian State is missing an entire coaching staff and this is the team’s first trip to New Orleans.

The Blue Raiders have an experienced bowl coach, motivation for plenty of seniors, and enough defense to slow down the Mountaineers offense.

As a bonus bet, look to bet Middle Tennessee at halftime. Stockstill should be able to coach circles around the makeshift staff of Appalachian State.

Spread the Floor, 4/13: Triple-Threat – Playoff Preview with Zach Harper and James Herbert