Bucks vs Hornets Pick, Prediction Tonight

Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Hornets on Thursday, Feb. 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Slowly but surely, things are beginning to turn for the Charlotte Hornets. The fourth-worst team in the NBA has rattled off five wins in their past seven games, and while they fell well short in Milwaukee their last time out, they'll have an opportunity to make a statement tonight at home.

Can the Hornets continue to trend upward against the highly volatile Bucks?

Let's get to our Bucks vs. Hornets pick and prediction.

The Bucks beat the Hornets by a stunning 38 points at home on Tuesday, grabbing 58% of available rebounds and shooting 40% from deep, all while holding their opponents to 27.5% shooting from downtown. This team is playing without Khris Middleton, and it's shown with its 20th-ranked efficiency number on offense over the past 10 games. However, Tuesday proved Milwaukee is still fully capable of exploiting a lopsided matchup.

Doc Rivers was brought in last month to improve this team's defense and he has certainly delivered. The Bucks rank fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions this month and are holding opponents to just 63.7% shooting at the rim and 40.1% from the mid-range — both top-10 marks over that span, according to Cleaning the Glass. They've struggled a bit to stop opponents from knocking down 3s, which is a bit of a concern given that that's the vast majority of the shots they've had to defend, but the upgrades inside the arc have been more than enough to turn the tides on defense.

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The Hornets have also had a similar home/road split from 3 and are shooting about one point better from outside at home. That'll be a trend to follow here against a Bucks team that has struggled to defend the perimeter. However, without LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams, the Hornets have struggled to find life offensively.

So, what's led to this miniature hot streak for one of the worst teams in basketball? Well, the turnaround on defense has been rather dramatic. Charlotte ranks 11th in points allowed per 100 possessions in February, but is third over the past seven games. That's all been thanks to a first-ranked 3-point defense, according to Cleaning the Glass, which has worked wonders to the tune of a 32.8% field goal percentage against.

We know the Bucks have done a good job of scoring at the rim, but they haven't gotten to within four feet as frequently as you'd think with somebody like Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the charge. Instead, they've taken a lot of 3s and have turned that up even more under Rivers.

The Bucks torched Charlotte from deep last time, but if we're to believe the trends we've been seeing, this contest could be much closer.

Charlotte's defense has been stellar and able to climb the ranks against some quality offenses in recent weeks with wins over the Jazz and Pacers and great defensive showings against the Warriors and Hawks. The Bucks have been a problem the Hornets haven't been able to solve, but they're playing them at home for the first time since November and trending up. As a result, I think Charlotte is the side to believe tonight.

Charlotte is just 23-35 against the spread overall, but has a 13-12 record ATS as a home underdog.

Pick: Hornets +11.5 (-105)