Mavericks vs Thunder Game 2 Prediction: NBA Odds, Expert Pick (Thursday, May 9)

Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Thunder on Thursday, May 9 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Thunder looked dominant in a 117-95 victory over the Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. Oklahoma City showed no signs of rust despite not being in action for roughly a week.

In contrast, the Mavericks looked like they had returned from a long layoff after recently wrapping up their series against the Clippers on Saturday. If you’re a Mavericks fan, you probably saw enough warning signs to keep you up at night.

I’ll expand on those concerns before sharing my best bet for Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 2.

Although the Mavericks lost three of the four regular-season meetings against the Thunder, each defeat came with an asterisk.

Kyrie Irving (foot injury) didn’t play in the first loss, a 126-120 defeat. And when Dallas lost 126-119 in the third meeting, its leading scorer, Luka Dončić, was out with a sore hamstring. Finally, when the Mavericks lost to the Thunder on the final day of the regular season, they didn’t play any of their starters because a win or loss wouldn’t have impacted their playoff seeding.

As a result, I gave the Mavericks the benefit of the doubt coming into this series because they were shorthand in all three losses.

And while injuries were often an issue when the Mavericks faced the Thunder in the regular season, that problem might’ve resurfaced in the playoffs.

Dončić has been battling soreness in his right knee throughout the postseason, and it’s becoming even more apparent that the injury is affecting his shooting. His 39.5% shooting percentage during these playoffs is the worst of his career. The dropoff is even more drastic from beyond the perimeter, considering he’s shooting just 22.7% from 3.

Thus, if the Mavericks' best player is essentially a shell of himself in this series, they’ll face an even more daunting task of trying to advance to the conference finals.

One of my biggest questions about OKC was whether it would be able to overcome its lack of rebounding in the postseason. In Game 1, the Thunder answered the bell, out-rebounding the Mavericks 52-39.

Moreover, if you review the box score closely, you’ll find the Thunder didn’t lose a single statistical category in the game. OKC won virtually everything, including 3-pointers, assists, points in the paint, turnovers, free throws and field goal percentage.

If Oklahoma City is going to be this dominant on both sides of the ball, the Mavericks won’t stand a chance in this series.

The luxury OKC has is that it doesn’t necessarily have to be perfect to win. The Thunder are a top-five team on offense and defense compared to Dallas, which is only a top-10 team on offense. Thus, the Mavericks have a much smaller margin for error when they come up against some of the better teams in the league.

Initially, I was concerned about how OKC’s offense would operate if it had to run more half-court sets during the postseason. However, the Thunder’s elite defense ensures it can thrive in a game with fewer possessions.

OKC also has one of the deeper rosters in the league, which means the team is less reliant on its star players.

While we might’ve expected this series to be more of a battle between two quality offenses, we’re seeing a Thunder defense start to come of age on the biggest stage.

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With Dončić struggling, look for the Mavericks to continue to exploit any areas where they might have an advantage. One matchup where they've had some success is at the center position with Daniel Gafford.

Gafford is an energetic player who can play above the rim. His style of play suits Dallas because he's often available to complete an uncontested lob pass for a dunk when Mavericks players drive into the paint. His activity around the basket ensures he's always in the vicinity to pick up a loose ball or draw a shooting foul inside the paint.

In three games against the Thunder this season, Gafford registered at least 16 points, almost 45% higher than his season average. Those numbers are far from a coincidence when considering how he fits this Dallas team.

With the Mavericks' offense struggling to get going, Gafford is one player they can count on for some easy buckets. Moreover, he's also capable of dishing out an assist, which makes the over on his points + assists prop of 11.5 extremely attractive.

Though we might not be able to count on Dallas in Game 2, this is one bet that Mavericks fans should feel pretty comfortable about.

Pick: Daniel Gafford over 11.5 points + assists (-105 at DraftKings)

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