Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet (Jan. 15): Will John Collins Get 19 Points?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

7-9-2, +5.55 Units

• Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
• NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
• NBA: 0-2-0, -2.0 Units
• NHL: 3-1-2, +1.95 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, Jan. 15: John Collins Over/Under 18.5 Points

The Pick: Over (-120)

I've highlighted two NBA props this year. Both of them have been on Pistons center Andre Drummond: Both were losses.

No more Drummond.

But we are returning to the hardwood tonight with the Hawks-Thunder game (7:30 p.m. ET), and Atlanta power forward John Collins provides value. In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, he is projected for 23.6 points.

For the season, Collins has just 18.9 points per game, so his prop doesn't look immediately investable, but over the past four games he's seen an increase in playing time from 29.4 minutes to 34.3. As a result, he has averaged 22.3 points across the past four games.

In the FantasyLabs NBA Models, we're projecting Collins to continue to see more time on the court with 33.7 minutes.

This line is available at Sportsbook. At 18.5, I’d bet it to -150. At -120, I'd bet it to 20.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.