Game 2 Trends: Why You Should Keep an Eye on the Betting Market
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry
The Action Network analysts John Ewing and Evan Abrams comb the Bet Labs database each day to bring you profitable trends for the slate. Here are notable historical trends for Cavs-Warriors Game 2.
Despite Game 1 going to overtime, the Warriors were still able to win by double-digits with the Cavaliers shooting 2-of-9 from the field in the extra session. The Warriors, once again, are a double-digit favorite at home vs. Cavaliers in Game 2.
Here’s how Golden State has done when favored by double-digits in the playoffs under Steve Kerr:
19-1 straight-up (L vs. Grizzlies in 2015)
7-13 against the spread
In Game 1, 58% of bettors were on Cleveland +13, and the Cavaliers rewarded bettors by covering. Keep an eye on the betting market for Game 2 (find live betting percentages here). Early action has been on the Cavs, pushing the line down from +12.5 to +11.5. One nugget to keep in mind: Since 2005, playoff favorites of more than three points getting 40% or less of bets have gone 70-37-2 (65%) ATS. There’s a chance the Warriors could fit those qualifications by the opening tip.
Need another reason to consider backing the Warriors? They enter Game 2 of the NBA Finals 71-29 this season straight-up, including the playoffs, for a win percentage of 71%. Teams that have won at least 70% of their games, but are receiving less than 50% of spread tickets, are 136-107-5 (56%) ATS in the playoffs since 2005. Teams are 25-15-1 ATS in the NBA Finals since 2005, including 11-4 ATS since 2014.
In general, fading the public in the NBA Finals has been the sharp play since 2005:
Teams getting less than 50% of bets: 43-30-1 (59%) ATS
Teams getting less than 45% of bets: 24-13 (65%) ATS
Teams getting less than 40% of bets: 10-4 (71%) ATS
In the 2018 playoffs, the Warriors are 1-7 against the first-half spread, having failed to cover their last six first halves following a double-digit win. In that situation, the Warriors are failing to cover the first half spread by 8.1 points per game and are the least profitable team in the NBA.
Overall, teams in the playoffs have struggled in the first half of their next game after winning by double-digits. In 2018 playoffs, those teams are 14-35 against the first half spread (-21.8 units) and over the last decade, teams are covering just 45% of first halves, costing bettors 58 total units.
In postseason games with the Cavaliers, LeBron’s teams are 4-0 SU and ATS after an overtime game, with two of those four wins coming as an underdog against the Warriors in 2015 NBA Finals.
Did you know? Since shooting 5-of-16 and 0-of-5 from 3-point range in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics, LeBron James has shot over 50% from the field in seven consecutive games, the 3rd-longest playoff streak of his career.
His numbers over that span are just ludicrous:
38.7 PPG | 55.6% FG Pct | 45.7 3PT FG Pct | 9.1 RPG | 8.3 APG
In the Warriors’ overtime win, they turned the ball over just seven times, the third time this postseason they’ve committed less than 10 turnovers in a game. In their previous two games after a low turnover contest, the Warriors lost both games — Games 2 and 4 of the Western Conference Finals against the Rockets — and committed 31 combined turnovers.