NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Trends Are Against the Golden State Warriors
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors.
Golden State Warriors Win Total Odds
The Case for the Over
- Curry, Kerr and Green
- Team Depth
- Last Season’s Numbers Set a False Perception
In the Steve Kerr era, the Warriors have gone over in every season where their win total was below 60 — the lone exception was the 2019-20 COVID-impacted season.
This team with Kerr, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green, let alone Klay Thompson, has won more games than the market expects, year after year. They went over in two of their three previous seasons after winning the title (over in 2016 and 2018, under in 2019). They’re a tried and true combination, and this total isn’t anywhere near some of their previous win totals.
The Dubs lost some pieces, but they have so much room for internal improvement. Moses Moody looks ready for a breakout after a promising rookie season. Jonathan Kuminga had stints in the playoffs and is set to use his athleticism in the Warrior’s short-roll sets effectively. And James Wiseman still tantalizes as a former No. 2 overall pick.
With Jordan Poole potentially better and Thompson another year removed from the injury, there’s very little reason to think the Warriors’ drop-off will be steep. They also added Donte DiVincenzo.
Golden State won 53 games last season and were right in line with their expected wins (54.2) Those figures came with Green missing several months with a back injury and then Curry missing the final two months with an ankle sprain. That’s on top of Thompson not playing until January.
The Warriors were never whole last season, and they still put up a higher figure than this win total. What sense does that make?
The Case for the Under
- Motivation and Fatigue
- Roster Changes
- Preseason Chaos
What possible reason would this team have to try in the regular season? They have four titles. Their core is all over 30 years old. They don’t need home court. They just got done playing in June.
There is no reason to believe this team will put the hammer down and push. They just want to get through the regular season and be healthy to defend their title when April comes.
They did lose significant guys. Otto Porter was great off the bench, he left in free agency, as did Gary Payton II. Those are two playoff rotation players. They’re banking on the young guys stepping up, and that’s inherently a gamble.
The Warriors felt they really needed Andre Iguodala back. That’s concerning. Iguodala is basically unavailable in the regular season, and when he did play, the numbers were pretty concerning.
Their identity last year was built on defense, and they lost two experienced defenders and are replacing them with young guys. Given how not-awesome their offense was last year, Steph or no Steph, that closes the margin a bit.
And then there are the vibes.
The Green situation is nothing new; this isn’t the first time Green has tangled or frayed with teammates or the front office. The severity of the situation does seem significant. When even experienced writers like the Athletics’ Marcus Thompson are saying this was a big deal, it’s a big deal.
This would be one thing if it were just the normal context, but the fact that both Green and the guy he punched, Poole, are both pursuing extensions adds a different layer to this.
Then there’s the preseason thing. Teams that go to Asia for preseason are 16-8 to the under since 2013. If that sounds random, the Warriors have spoken before about how it messes up your training camp schedule.
It’s lots of travel on long flights and lots of media appearances. The schedule in Japan for the Warriors this season was shorter and lighter than the trips to China, but it’s enough for me to be concerned. Meanwhile, teams with a win total of 51 or higher are 27-14-1 to the under in the last 10 seasons (64.2%).
Warriors Win Total Bet
It’s an under play for me, but not a max at 2.5 units.
Motivation is my No. 1 factor when it comes to the regular season, even more than injuries. This team has zero reasons to try, and they’re not so talented as to coast to 55 or more wins like the Durant teams.
With the Big 3 all on the other side of 30, it’s reasonable to expect some restraint when it comes to their minutes. How do those games go?
Without Curry: 51-86 (37%)
Without Green: 47-48 (49.5%)
Without Curry and Green: 20-31 (39.2%)
The margin on this number is tight either way, which is why it’s not the best bet. If the Warriors decide to just go for it in the regular season and gameplan for 50-plus wins, they’ll get over this number most likely.
I just don’t believe conditions are right for them to do so. It’s an under for me.