Grizzlies vs Mavericks Picks, Prediction Today | Tuesday, Jan. 9

Here's everything you need to know about Grizzlies vs. Mavericks on Tuesday, Jan. 9 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Intro.

Let's get to our Grizzlies vs. Mavericks prediction and pick.

Losing Ja Morant is a low blow that the Grizzlies may not have expected especially so soon after his return. Morant was the offensive boost that was needed for Memphis. Their offense climbed from an offensive rating of 107.3 with him off the floor to 114.9 with him on the court, a +7.6 swing. That’s essentially the difference between being a league-average offense and being the worst offense in the NBA. But now the question goes back to: Can the Grizzlies keep the ship afloat with Morant out? The big story for the Grizzlies has been their turn to the three pointer on offense as they rank #1 in the NBA in three point attempt rate over their past 8 games (44%). For reference the Celtics rank #2 in that stretch attempting 41% of their shots from three, so as you can see the Grizzlies are drastically above the rest of the NBA in three point attempt rate. They should be able to maintain that high three point attempt rate here as the Mavericks rank just 19^th in defensive three point attempt rate allowed. I’m of the opinion that the Grizzlies have been a bit unlucky offensively as they rank 29^th in effective field goal % but 8^th in location effective field goal %. Location effective field goal percentage posits what a team’s effective field goal percentage would be based on their shot location if they shot at the league-average. The Grizzlies are generating good looks but the shots have not fallen for them. With players like Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart, and Santi Aldama starting to see more minutes I anticipate that the Grizzlies will begin to positively regress offensively. This is a great spot for the Grizzlies offense to get going as well as the Mavericks rank 22^nd in adjusted defensive rating despite playing the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses according to dunksandthrees.com.

Monitor the injury report as Mavericks center Dereck Lively is questionable heading into this one. Lively is easily the Mavericks most impactful defender and they will need his rim-protection to slow down Ja Morant here. The Mavericks offense continues to be elite with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on the floor together as they have a 122.1 offensive rating when these two share the floor. They should be able to stay hot offensively as the Mavericks don’t do a great job of defending the three point line ranking bottom-10 in three point attempt rate allowed and three point percentage allowed. The Mavericks rank 2^nd in offensive three point attempt rate this season so this will be a substantial edge for them.  Expect the Mavericks offense to perform well here.

I like the over in this spot given that both of these offenses have edges and we should see plenty of threes launched here. High three point attempt rate is favorable to the over for obvious reasons but it also leads to longer rebounds which in turn can lead to more second chance opportunities and more transition opportunities for the defense. Overall, I think these teams don’t match up great with each other and I am projecting there to be a lot of points here.

Ja Morant has been announced out for the season with shoulder surgery but I think the Grizzlies will still have an enough offense to clear the current total of 234. With Jaren Jackson Jr also questionable there is a chance both teams are completely devoid of rim-protection here and I think there is still a path to this over despite Morant’s absence.

Pick: Over 234