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Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds, Game 3 Preview, Prediction: Bet the First Quarter Over/Under in Minnesota (April 21)

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds, Game 3 Preview, Prediction: Bet the First Quarter Over/Under in Minnesota (April 21) article feature image
Credit:

Via Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Edwards.

  • The Timberwolves are short home underdogs against the Grizzlies on Thursday night.
  • With both of these teams playing at such a fast pace, they should put up plenty of points -- especially early on.
  • NBA betting analyst Tyler Schmidt breaks down this Game 3 matchup and shares his best bet below.

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds

Grizzlies Odds -1.5
Timberwolves Odds +1.5
Over/Under 238
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Memphis Grizzlies have their hands full with the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round. These teams have split their combined regular and postseason games 3-3; it is obvious the Timberwolves are not intimidated by the Grizzlies.

The Timberwolves led the league in scoring and love to push the pace. There will be a lot of points scored, so it should come to no surprise that this matchup has the highest total on this slate.

There are many ways to attack this game from a betting perspective and some very valuable props on the board. Let’s find the best bet to make in this game.

Will the Grizzlies Keep Rolling in Game 3?

After losing Game 1 at home, the Grizzlies bounced back with a dominant victory in game two. They won by 28 points as they ran away with it toward the end of the second quarter. They are slight favorites tonight as they went 24-15-2 against the spread on the road this season, according to Bet Labs.

My colleague Brandon Anderson called this out in our Best Bets article on Tuesday, but the under on Steven Adams’ rebounds has one of our most profitable angles this postseason. He started the game, but played just three minutes. He got into early foul trouble, but this matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns is a struggle for Adams.

Towns had 29 points and 13 rebounds in the first game when Adams was the primary defender. In that game, Adams played 24 minutes and had three rebounds, three assists, and zero points. (Kyle Anderson started the second half for Adams last game, so don’t be surprise if that happens again in Game 3.)

After being tied for the worst Plus/Minus in Game 1 (-16), Ja Morant was tied for the the highest (+24) in Game 2. He finished the game with a near triple-double on 23 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds while shooting 9-for-16 from the field.

The Grizzlies have one of the best benches in the league, which they can use to their advantage. They went 20-5 without Morant this season and will likely play at least 10 players double-digit minutes. They were second in the league in scoring behind the Timberwolves, and sixth in Defensive Rating this season.

The Timberwolves play at the fastest Pace in the league as they allow 113.3 points per game. They rank middle of the pack in Defensive Rating but rank 21st in rebounding percentage, while the Grizzlies lead the league. The Grizzlies will need to maintain the momentum from last game and carry it over in Minnesota.


Can the Timberwolves Defend Home Court?

The Timberwolves shocked a lot of people with their road victory in Game 1. They seemed content with the split as they didn’t show up for most of the second half. Target Center will have an electric atmosphere, as they get a chance to reset and play their first home playoff game with this crop of players.

The Wolves had a losing road record this season, but went 26-15 straight up and 22-18-1 ATS at home. They won a very difficult Play-In Tournament game against the Los Angeles Clippers on their home floor, and despite being underdogs, obviously match up extremely well with the Grizzlies as both teams play at an extremely fast pace.

Towns leads the Timberwolves in points, rebounds, and blocks this season. He also led the league in fouls after the All-Star break and struggled with foul trouble in the postseason, the play-in. However, if Towns can stay out of foul trouble, he should dominate in this matchup tonight.

Anthony Edwards has been a bit of a roller coaster all season long, but seems to be coming into his own during this playoff run. He has led the Timberwolves in points for all three playoff games, averaging 28.7 points per game in his first ever playoff series.

The wild card for the Timberwolves is, surprisingly, D’Angelo Russell. He has scored 10.5 points per game in this series while shooting an abysmal 22.7% from the field. This is surprising as Russell torched the Grizzlies in their four games, averaging 31 points per game and shooting 55.8% from the field.

Despite the Grizzlies having such a good bench and defense, they have allowed 109.9 points per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The best thing about this Timberwolves team is they have no fear, especially against the Grizzlies whom they have beaten three times this season. That is dangerous.

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Grizzlies-Timberwolves Pick

Betting the spread or total is difficult because these teams are so evenly matched. Instead I am going to look a little deeper into a specific quarter prop.

It is no secret that the Grizzlies and Timberwolves love scoring the ball. They not only led the league in scoring, but they also led the league in first quarter points. Specifically, Towns ranked second behind Devin Booker in total first quarter points.

The Grizzlies and Timberwolves have combined for an average of 69.5 points per game in the first two games during the first quarter. The Grizzlies are averaging 33 points, while the Timberwolves are averaging 36.5 points per game. They both have a line of 28.5 points, which is way too low.

I would take this line up to 59.5 first quarter points and each team up to 29.5 points if it got to that point. These teams loving filling it up early in the game.

Pick: Over 57.5 First Quarter Points (-110)

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