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Rockets vs Nuggets Prediction, Pick Tonight: Wednesday, Nov. 29

Rockets vs Nuggets Prediction, Pick Tonight: Wednesday, Nov. 29 article feature image
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Alperen Sengun #28 of the Houston Rockets and Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets face off for the opening tip to start an NBA In-Season Tournament game at Toyota Center. (Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images)

Rockets vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks for Wednesday, Nov. 29

Wednesday, Nov. 29
9 p.m. ET
NBA League Pass
Over 216.5 + Nuggets moneyline

Here's everything you need to know about Rockets vs Nuggets on Wednesday, Nov. 29 — our expert prediction and betting pick today.

The Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets haven't gone as many expected this year.

The Rockets appear legit so far, especially on defense, thanks to head coach Ime Udoka, among others — except for one key factor we'll outline.

They're 2-0 against the Nuggets this year, both games in Houston, which we'll also discuss in a second. But the Nuggets have major injury implications that could be ratified positively by tip-off, which could tilt the balance of tonight's contest.

Let's get to our Rockets vs Nuggets prediction and pick.

Rockets vs Nuggets Prediction

Pick: Over 216.5 + Nuggets moneyline

Nuggets Betting Preview

The Nuggets have the added advantage of an extra day off, and as a bonus, Jamal Murray has been elevated to questionable on their latest injury report after missing 11 games due to a hamstring setback.

Otherwise, the Nuggets are still great, just cruising through the regular season with a 12-6 record. They probably won't look like the best regular season team for much of the season but will look amazing in the playoffs. They've won two straight over the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers, respectively, but notably, the Nuggets have two losses to the Rockets this season, both in Houston.

On November 12, the Nuggets lost 107-104 to the Rockets and were blown out 105-86 12 days later. Murray wasn't available for either, and the latter included an 0-for-12 (!!) shooting display from Gordon. Yeesh.

Notable Rankings: 

  • Assists per 100 possessions: 1st (29.8)
  • Field goal percentage: 5th (.490)
  • Net rating: 8th (+4.2)
  • Points per 100 possessions: 10th (116.1)
  • Free throws per field goal attempt: T-last (.160)

Notable Injuries:

Nikola Jokic (back) is questionable to play and missed last game against the Clippers, his only DNP of the season.

Jama Murray (hamstring) is upgraded to questionable and may return tonight. If not, sounds like he's back soon.

Aaron Gordon (heel) has missed two straight games and is questionable to play on Wednesday.


Rockets Betting Preview

The Rockets are just 8-7 but feel much better since they are stunningly good on defense… at home, where, as mentioned, they have two wins over the defending champs.

They've cooled off after a 6-3 start — which was really a six-game win streak that followed three consecutive losses to start the season. They've held the Nuggets, the Sacramento Kings (twice), the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers all under 100 points in different games this season.

The thing is, Houston has been markedly better at home. All five of those games were at home. Of their 15 games, nine have been at home, where they're 8-1 — meaning they're 0-6 on the road. They're the only team in the NBA yet to win a road game.

On point differential, the Rockets are -52 on the road but +131 (!!) at home. So remember that when betting and when parsing through numbers.

The Rockets are also on the second leg of a back-to-back. They lost 121-115 to the Mavericks in Dallas last night. So, no, their defense hasn't traveled well yet.

Notable Rankings: 

  • Fewest opponent assists: 1st (22.6)
  • Defensive field goal percentage: 3rd (.439)
  • Fewest points allowed per 100 possessions: 4th (108.5)
  • Net rating: 7th (+4.7)
  • Pace: 28th (96.5)

Rockets vs Nuggets Picks, Odds

Wednesday, Nov 29
9:00pm ET
ALT
Rockets Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+7.5
-110
216.5
-110o / -110u
+250
Nuggets Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-7.5
-110
216.5
-110o / -110u
-310
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

I'll do a little parlay here.

The over/under is listed at 216.5, and I'm going over. The Rockets are entering leg two of a back-to-back, and their excellent home defense hasn't traveled that well. They allow, on average, 115.8 points per game on the road vs. 98.6 at the crib. The Nuggets will be more of an offensive machine if Murray, Jokic, and Gordon are there — I'm betting as if they are, at least the first two — so I'm going over.

With that, I'll parlay the over at -108 with the Nuggets moneyline at -298 to get a parlay at +156 on DraftKings.

Pick: Over 216.5 + Nuggets moneyline (+156 parlay) — if Jokic, Murray and Gordon are active.

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Nick Sterling
Feb 23, 2024 UTC