Joel Embiid Meniscus Injury: Betting Impacts for 76ers Futures and MVP

Reigning MVP Joel Embiid has suffered another unfortunate injury setback in a career full of them. The Philadelphia 76ers announced Thursday that Embiid suffered an injury to the lateral meniscus in his left leg. The team announced he would be out through the weekend while a treatment plan is finalized.

The announcement comes after Embiid suffered the injury in Tuesday's loss against the Golden State Warriors. Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga fell on Embiid, who left the game soon after. Embiid, however, had not looked right the entire night. After the game, coach Nick Nurse said the injury was unrelated to the issues that kept him out two games and induced a great deal of media criticism over missing Saturday's game in Denver, including from this writer.

Regardless of the context of the injury, there will be an understandably strong reaction to the criticism he received, given he was clearly hurt. No NBA writer wants to see anyone injured, and while it was still a baffling decision not to include Embiid on the injury report in advance of the Nuggets game — a decision that solicited a fine from the league Thursday — there's also no question Embiid was not in good enough health to play in the Nuggets game, the subsequent Blazers game or the game he tried to play in versus the Warriors when he sustained the injury.

The Athletic reported that Embiid felt pressure to compete because of the media scrutiny surrounding his availability for the Nuggets game. Again, this writer was part of that criticism, and regrets that he helped generate an environment in which a player may have put his long-term health at risk.

But Embiid is out now, and there are massive ramifications from the injury.

The 76ers

Clearly, losing the league's leading scorer around which they had organized their entire team, will have drastic impacts on the 76ers' playoff chances.

Embiid may not need surgery; players sometimes elect to manage the injury through rest. Embiid, in fact, suffered a small tear in the 2021 playoffs vs. the Wizards and returned to play in Game 1 of the next series.

If Embiid does elect for surgery, there are two outcomes:

• Embiid can have the meniscus removed, which results in shorter return times (as short as six weeks), but long-term injury management becomes more difficult. It should be noted that Chris Paul elected for this procedure, and while he had knee issues throughout his career, he has been able to play into his late 30s.
• Embiid can opt to have the meniscus repaired, which has better long-term impacts but would require him to likely miss the remainder of the season.

To sum up:

Rest: Weeks

Removal: 6-8 weeks

Repair: Rest of season

Either of the two outcomes that would keep him out weeks would put a great deal of value on 76ers futures. Philadelphia will lose more games than if he had played and likely slide to the 6th seed or play-in. But with Embiid, the 76ers would still profile as a team I thought was the best value for Eastern Conference title futures.

But the books have to respond to the injury and adjust the odds accordingly. So the best play for bettors, if it's announced he'll return this season, is to wait to see the 76ers slide in the standings, prompting the books to be forced to lengthen their odds, and then bet them. They are more than capable of making the Finals as long as Embiid is available for the playoffs.

If Embiid is out the rest of the year, obviously, that's done. The 76ers are still very good in the non-Embiid minutes, averaging a +3.1 net rating without him on the floor this season. But those are staggered minutes against mixed-bench lineups. Philadelphia is 3-9 straight up and 5-7 ATS this season without Embiid. They'll certainly slide, likely all the way out of the playoffs unless Daryl Morey and the 76ers front office cash in their assets for a third star to pair with first-time All-Star Tyrese Maxey.

Hopefully, Embiid can return this season. If he can, 76ers Eastern Conference title futures will be worth betting.

Most Valuable Player

Embiid will miss enough games to be disqualified for awards consideration by missing more than 17 games this season. Regardless of what decision is made about this injury, he won't be eligible. As such, Nikola Jokić is the new favorite at -140 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Embiid would have likely won had he played enough games; he leads the league in scoring with one of the best scoring seasons we've seen.

It makes sense that Jokić moves to the favorite after winning two of the last three and finishing second last season. But the winner may come down to who finishes with the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. On Wednesday, the Thunder beat the Nuggets (without Jokić), which clinched the tiebreaker for the Oklahoma City over Denver.

If the Thunder finish with the No. 1 seed and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+250) plays a comparable amount of games, there's a very strong chance Gilgeous-Alexander will win the award. His statistical profile is in line with Jokić's advanced numbers and Gilgeous-Alexander's defensive impact is higher.

Luka Dončić will finish on the ballot, but you need to believe that Dončić will go on a tear and that the Mavericks will finish with a top-four seed at worst. His efficiency and impact aren't comparable.

The most interesting option is Giannis Antetokounmpo at +800. The Bucks, with Doc Rivers now coaching, could very well go on a tear once Rivers gets to make his impact, and Antetokounmpo's numbers have been at their typical level of excellent.

The longshot? Kawhi Leonard at +15000. His numbers are terrific but not in line with the ones at the top (24-6-2 on 53-44-84 shooting), but if the Clippers keep up their torrid pace to sneak out the top seed over the Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves, it could put Leonard into the conversation.

There continues to surprisingly be little case made for Jayson Tatum despite the Celtics dominating with the league's best record. While Tatum could finish on the ballot, winning the most vote points seems unlikely.

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