Knicks vs Rockets Prediction, Picks Tonight

Here's everything you need to know about Knicks vs. Rockets on Monday, Feb. 12 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Tonight's NBA matchup between the New York Knicks and Houston Rockets is a interesting one, as a strong case can be made for both sides with distinctive strengths and weaknesses. The Rockets' 18-9 home court record will be tested against a Knicks squad that, despite injuries, has managed to hold its own this season. The absence of key players like Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and OG Anunoby for the Knicks, as well as Fred VanVleet for the Rockets, adds an extra layer of complexity to the game's dynamics.

Let's get to our Knicks vs. Rockets prediction and pick.

The Knicks have had a a mercurial offense this season, ranking 19^th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and 11^th in turnover percentage (TOV%), indicating a tendency to maintain possession but struggle with shooting efficiency. New York’s strong suit has been on the boards, with an impressive 2^nd ranked offensive rebounding percentage (OREB%) and an above average free throw rate (12th), showcasing their ability to extend possessions for second chance points and get to the free throw line to capitalize on defensive lapses (11^th in FT%).

On the defensive end, the Knicks are league average 14^th in eFG%, suggesting a relatively solid ability to contest shots, although not elite. Their ranking of 20^th in TOV% is below the league average and it shows they don't force as many turnovers as they potentially could. However, they excel in not giving away free points, ranking 4th in FTR, and are competent in securing the ball once a shot goes up, with the 8^th ranked defensive rebounding percentage (DREB%).

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The Houston Rockets' offensive metrics haven't been as strong, with their shooting efficiency putting them 26^th in the league regarding eFG%. They do, however, take care of the ball well, with a top 10 ranking in TOV%. Their OREB% and FTR are middle of the pack, ranked 19^th and 14^th respectively, indicating a moderate ability to get extra chances and draw fouls.

Defensively, the Rockets have shown an ability to challenge opponents' shot making, ranking an impressive 5^th in eFG%. Their defensive rebounding is also a strong point ranking at 5^th, which helps them close out possessions effectively. However, they tend to put opponents on the line too often, as indicated by their 28^th rank in FTR, and they don't generate turnovers as much as they could, ranking 19^th in TOV%.

Factoring in these metrics and the impact of player absences including Anunoby and Randle for the Knicks, betting on the Rockets +3 is the side I’ll be taking tonight. The Rockets' strong defensive eFG% and DREB% suggest they can contest the Knicks' shots and limit second-chance points if they can keep a lid on starting point guard Jalen Brunson. New York, missing the presence of Randle and Robinson, may find it challenging to exploit their usual rebounding advantage and could struggle to maintain their scoring without Anunoby's perimeter threat.

Moreover, the Rockets' solid TOV% indicates they could maintain possession and possibly capitalize on the Knicks' less aggressive turnover-inducing defense. With the Rockets' respectable defensive metrics, they're poised to keep the game competitive, making the +3 spread an attractive bet. Houston is also 18-9 against the spread this season while being 5-20 on the road, highlighting their preference of playing in front of their home crowd rather than hostile environments.

Take the Rockets +3 at bet365 and expect a tightly fought battle in Houston tonight.

Pick: Rockets +3 (-110)

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