Magic vs Pacers Prediction, Picks | Best Bet for Saturday

Here's everything you need to know about Magic vs. Pacers on Saturday, Dec. 23 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Magic will travel to Indiana on Saturday night. Can the Pacers bounce back after a few tough losses or will the Magic's defense stifle this explosive Pacer offense?

Let's get to our Magic vs. Pacers prediction and pick.

The Pacers have come down to Earth after their in-season tournament run, going 2-4 across their last six games.

Zooming out from the public hype and narrative around this team, we see they actually rank just 21st in net rating (-1.0) and have played the fifth-easiest schedule of opponents, according to dunksandthrees.com.

They rank dead last in defensive rating despite playing the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. This is a truly terrible defense, but a lot of that is brushed over because we have an inherent bias towards offense in our coverage of the NBA.

The offense, however, has been elite. Indiana ranks third in adjusted offensive rating and first in halfcourt offensive. Tyrese Haliburton has been a top-10 player this year and ranks above the 90th percentile in effective FG%, AST %, points per shot attempt and assist-to-usage rate. The problem with the Pacers is they have no ability to win games when their shots aren’t falling, as we saw in their Thursday night loss to the Grizzlies. The Pacers were able to launch 51 threes but only converted on 35% of those looks and ended up losing by double digits. If the Pacers shoot poorly, they are almost certainly going to lose most games they play in. They are 1-9 when they shoot below the league average for effective FG%.

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If you asked most casual fans around the league who was having the better season between the Magic and the Pacers, most might say the Pacers. But the Magic actually have been four full points better in terms of net rating (+3.1) and sit two games ahead of the Pacers in the win column.

Orlando ranks third in adjusted defensive rating despite battling through injuries to two of its starters in Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr.

This is a dream matchup for the Magic offense, as the Pacers rank dead last in opponent rim rate allowed (39.3%) while the Magic rank first in offensive rim rate (40.8%). The Pacers do not have great defenders to contain Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony, and they also do not have great wing defenders to match up with Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. I fully expect the Magic offense to excel in this spot.

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Tyrese Haliburton is questionable after rolling his ankle against the Grizzlies, so monitor the injury report. I will be backing the Magic as underdogs and would be willing to back them up to -3 if Haliburton is ultimately ruled out.

Pick: Magic +1

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