Mavericks vs Timberwolves Picks, Prediction Today | Thursday, Dec. 28

Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. Timberwolves on Thursday, Dec. 28 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

After surrendering a 20-point lead in a stunning loss to the Cavaliers, the Mavericks will look to rebound when they travel to Minnesota on the second night of a back-to-back. Can Dallas recover here to re-establish the momentum it'd created in the previous two games?

Let's get to our Mavericks vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick.

It should be said that even in a game where they went into the locker room leading by 15 points, the Mavericks didn't play all that well against the Cavaliers for the duration of this one. Dallas shot just 28.6% from 3 in the first half and allowed Cleveland to get whatever it wanted on offense.

It was the 10 turnovers which the defense forced that really made the difference in those opening two quarters.

When it was all said and done, the Mavericks were dominated on the glass, losing the rebounding battle by a margin of 20, and they allowed 39.5% shooting from deep in a game which they probably didn't deserve to win.

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Now, the Mavericks are still playing without Kyrie Irving, and while he's nearing a return he's expected to sit this one out as well. In 11 games they've played without him, including the game in which he was injured, the Mavericks are 6-5, so it's hard to say this will make a monumental impact on the proceedings.

The rebounding discrepancy against Cleveland was nothing to be too surprised about, given the Mavericks rank 28th in that regard this season and the Cavaliers have been one of the strongest teams on the glass for the last couple of years.

One thing that was surprising, however, was the Mavs' 14th-ranked 3-point defense wilting. This team hasn't done a great job defending down low given their lack of meaningful size, but they've defended the perimeter quite acceptably.

It was also surprising how things went on the opposite end of the floor, given the Mavericks take 3-pointers at the second-highest clip in the league and are above-average in accuracy, according to Cleaning the Glass.

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The Timberwloves return home, where they're a blistering 12-1, after a miniature two-game road trip. On Tuesday, they hung around on the road in Oklahoma City — one of the toughest asks in the league — for three quarters before eventually falling for just the second time in seven games.

So, things are going pretty well for this team. Minnesota, the best defensive team in the league, has remained excellent on that end with a 110.8 efficiency rating over the last 10 contests.

This squad has been excellent in all facets on that end, but it's been particularly strong against the 3, ranking third in the NBA in that category according to Cleaning the Glass. The only spot of slight bother has come at the rim, where it ranks eighth, and in transition, where it ranks 13th.

Outside of that, this is an iron-clad unit.

On the injury front, there is a big storyline to watch here which is the status of Karl-Anthony Towns. The big man experienced some knee soreness following the Timberwolves' recent loss to the Thunder and is listed as questionable for this tilt.

While the Mavericks have been splendid this season on the second half of a back-to-back, going 4-2 against the spread, their opponents here are a whopping 7-2-1 ATS with a rest advantage this season and 8-3-2 ATS at home. It does feel like too many points to spot Dallas, but its only real advantage here is probably its edge in the turnover numbers.

We saw on Wednesday, however, that even if the Mavericks win the turnover battle (+6 against the Cavs), it may not be enough to overcome the obstacles that this defense — particularly on the interior — will pose.

The Mavericks rank 28th in defense at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass, and as one of the three worst teams in the league on the glass they should get killed there once again against an eighth-ranked Timberwolves rebounding attack.

Offensively, Minnesota will likely lean on its greatest strength here which is its ability to score in the paint. That will present a nightmarish matchup for Dallas, and on the other side of the floor this excellent 3-point defense should smother all hopes of the Mavericks keeping pace offensively.

When you factor in that the Mavs' 3-point numbers decline by nearly four points away from home, I think this has all the makings of a commanding Minnesota victory.

Pick: Timberwolves -12

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