Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 5 Betting Odds Trends: How Referee Scott Foster Impacts Western Conference Finals
Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Scott Foster
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Odds
|Mavericks Odds||+6.5 (-108)|
|Warriors Odds||-6.5 (-112)|
|Date||Thursday, May 26|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
*Odds are according to FanDuel as of Thursday afternoon
NBA referee Scott Foster has a noticeably brutal history with Chris Paul and James Harden.
We’ve covered those trends extensively in the past, though the details aren’t particularly applicable here because both are out of the playoffs. The crux is that when Foster officiates Paul and Harden’s games in the postseason, historic trends indicate you should fade their teams.
For the Golden State Warriors and Steve Kerr, it’s the complete opposite.
Kerr is the second-best coach of all-time against the spread (ATS) when Foster is the head referee. The Warriors coach is 37-26-1 ATS with Foster in grey. That record includes both the regular season and playoffs.
While that trend is true for the Kerr-led Warriors, teams in their specific position have performed inconsistently in years past.
On one hand, teams up 3-1 with Game 5 at home are 7-0 straight up over the past decade with Foster as the referee.
That trend’s ATS record is worse at 5-2, but a $100 bettor would still have made $254 from those games — a return on investment of over 36%.
On the other hand, during Games 5 through 7, teams that have lost the previous game are 15-30 ATS when Foster is the referee. That’s by far the worst of any ref since 2010.
A $100 bettor would be down $1,636. That’s a -36% return on investment.
That said, there are different correlating factors associated with both of those aforementioned trends. The first one is more specific with its parameters, but has a far smaller sample size. A team up 3-1 and playing at home is likely to be stronger than its opponent.
The second trend is also self-selecting to some degree and one can’t necessarily assume Foster is the determining, or even the main, factor in those ATS results.
Still, these are historic trends worth considering before you make your wager for tonight’s game.
Make sure to develop your own additional thesis before slapping either side of the spread.