Milwaukee Bucks 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Fade Giannis & Co. at Your Own Risk

Milwaukee Bucks 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Fade Giannis & Co. at Your Own Risk article feature image
Credit:

Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jrue Holiday #21 and Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks.

Check out this post for updated season win total and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.

Bucks Win Total Odds

Best Line
82-Game Projection
Over: 49.5 (BetMGM) [Bet Now]
56 Wins
Under: 50.5 (FanDuel) [Bet Now]
58 Wins

The Case for the Over

The Bucks with Mike Budenholzer, in the regular season, have been a juggernaut. They have such a huge margin of error. They won 38 games by double-digit points last season, six more than the next team. They went 39-4 vs. teams under .500, just annihilating bad teams.

They sacrificed depth in the offseason to add Jrue Holiday, but that just makes them a stronger team. Holiday is an upgrade on Eric Bledsoe offensively and is even or superior defensively. The Bucks have a true Big 3 with Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Greek Freak will be in contention for a third straight MVP and while I am skeptical he wins it, it won’t be because his numbers or impact dipped, but pure voter fatigue.

Milwaukee has been the best defensive team in the league over the past two seasons with a top-five offense to boot. The Bucks can go toe to toe with any team including the Lakers and Clippers and beat them; their playoff foibles are not applicable in the regular season.

The Bucks trample teams. And they don’t have to go full tilt to hammer them. Losing their depth isn’t crippling because of the young talent they’ve developed and even if their bench unit suffers some, that just means more minutes for the starters. (That’s a problem Budenholzer honestly needs to suffer.)

They’re a 60-win team in a regular 82-game season, and it’s pretty safe as long as Giannis is on the team.

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The Case for the Under

The Bucks thought they’d landed Giannis his preferred running mate, Bogdan Bogdanovic, but no, that deal turned into a fiasco. The result is an awkward sense that this wasn’t supposed to be the team this season.

Even if Holiday is an upgrade on Bledsoe, they’ll miss Hill, and Ersan Ilyasova too. Those were veteran pieces, and Hill was often a plus-player in terms of impact.

It might take time for them to adjust. They don’t have options upon options like they’ve had the past two seasons, the depth is shorter now.

Just a slight drop off and the over is in danger.

Milwaukee Bucks Win Total Bet

Giannis signed his supermax extension on Tuesday, and as a result, you have to hit the over here. The Bucks were supposed to have gotten worse without Malcolm Brogdon last season; they were on pace for 62 wins, including a disappointing stint in the Bubble.

The Bucks aren’t coasters; they don’t screw around and then barely put teams away. Their average performance is so good that it turns competitive games into laughers.

Winning regular-season games is just easy for this team, for this coach. You’re welcome to fade the Bucks’ title prospects into oblivion, that’s a wise choice.

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