NBA Best Bets Tonight | Expert Picks for Wednesday, Nov. 8
Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Ivica Zubac #40 of the LA Clippers
It was a long day without any NBA action on Tuesday, but we are back and in a big way today!
With a loaded 14-game slate, our experts give their NBA best bets and predictions for Wednesday, Nov. 8. We have Wemby and the Spurs at MSG to take on the Knicks with a heavy-hitting eastern conference matchup between the Celtics (5-1) and the 76ers (also 5-1) going down in Philly.
That's not even scratching the surface for what's on deck tonight. So gather your energy and get prepared for the notable matchups and even the under-the-radar games that should grab your attention for your betting pleasure with our best NBA bets today.
NBA Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Celtics vs. 76ers
By Chris Baker
I’m willing to back the Celtics off a loss against a 76er team that has yet to play real competition outside of their opener versus Milwaukee. Even their one-point loss looks less impressive in the context of how the Bucks have played since then. Derrick White is probable and that is huge news for this Celtics team as he currently ranks top-5 in Box Plus-minus this season.
You can make a legitimate case that White has been the Celtics 2nd best player dating back to last season. White and Jrue Holiday should be able to limit Maxey’s efficiency and playmaking and at that point I’m willing to live with Embiid in taking twos and flopping in the mid-post. Celtics rank 5th best in transition offensive rating this year while the 76ers rank 26th in transition rate allowed and 17th in transition defensive rating.
In the halfcourt, we should see the Celtics get a lot of easy looks at the rim as Horford and Porzingis pull Embiid away from the rim. I don’t like the way the sixers match up and seeing that they have yet to be tested I am very comfortable fading them here.
Pick: Celtics -2 | Play to -2.5
Wizards vs. Hornets
By Jim Turvey
The rookie forward for Charlotte has failed to clear this number each of his last three games, but there's reason to believe Wednesday will be the day he turns it around.
Terry Rozier missed last game for the Hornets with a groin strain that will also keep him out Wednesday. Head coach Steve Clifford turned to Miller to take Rozier's spot in the starting lineup and played him nearly 36 minutes, up from his average of just over 30 minutes a game heading into Monday.
Miller scored on seven points, but that was due in large part to bad shooting luck. He went 3 of 12 from the field, and notably 0 of 5 from deep. Both of those attempts were above his season average coming into the game, a shot diet that was settling him in around 14.5 points.
In addition to the minutes and FGA bump, Miller gets a tasty matchup with a defense that is allowing–handily–the most points per game in the NBA. The Wizards allow 128.7 points per game, with the Spurs in second at 125.9 and the Pacers a distant third at 121.7.
The pace will be up and down, and Miller should have plenty of looks against the worst defense in the league. I'd play this up to 16.5 at even money.
Pick: Brandon Miller Over 14.5 points
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Spurs vs. Knicks
Betting a Spurs under is scary this season. San Antonio hasn't gone under the total since they scored just 83 points against the Clippers on October 29, and even then Los Angeles put up 123 points. A big reason is the high pace at which they play (101.7). Another is their horrible defense, ranked 29th per Dunks and Threes. But this is a good matchup for an under with the Knicks on the other side.
New York plays at the fifth-slowest pace and their glacial half-court offense averages 14.8 seconds per possession, which is fourth longest in the league. The Knicks are also fourth in Defense (109.5) and relatively equipped to handle Wemby’s eight-foot wingspan. The Spurs like to get out in transition, but they’re third in transition opportunities off live rebounds and the Knicks are the best offensive rebounding team in the league thanks to offensive rebound leader Mitchell Robinson.
I think the Knicks limit the Spurs transition chances and slow down the pace on offense. Even if I’m wrong about the pace and both teams play fast, which is out of character for New York, neither defense is good enough to punish us. At 224.5, this number is way too high and I like the under down to 221.
Pick: Under 224.5 | Play to 221
By Joe Dellera
Victor has only exceeded this line in 3 of 7 games so far in his career and those were against the Suns, the Rockets, and the Raptors. Now, he faces the Knicks who have had the 4th best Adjusted Defensive Rating in the league.
This season, bigs have struggled against the Knicks and a large part of that is the defense of Mitchell Robinson. Robinson was asked in the post-game after their victory over the Clippers all about how he would guard Wembanyama and he seemed almost annoyed at the thought that he might struggle in the matchup.
Robinson has elite defensive numbers on the season and his length and athleticism will likely be the toughest test Wembanyama has seen so far this season. Besides the specific matchup, the Knicks play at one of the slowest Paces in the league, which should give Wembanyama even fewer possessions to fill up the basket.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Under 19.5 Points
This is really a bet on Mitchell Robinson. So why not bet on Robinson?
His rebounding prop is 10.5, his blocks prop is 1.5, and his stocks prop is 2.5.
But I do think he'll play hard as hell and give Wemby a physical challenge … ideally not to the point of being in instant foul trouble. But between Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein logging center minutes, surrounded by other tough rebounders like Julius Randle and Josh Hart, I think if Wemby has a big game at Madison Square Garden, it'll be his scoring.
The rebounding has been better than I projected, and maybe it could stay around the 8.4 mark it is all year, but as the longgg campaign continues, I have my doubts about that stat in particular, and I think Robinson helps drive a Wemby under on Wednesday.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Under 8.5 rebounds
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Clippers vs. Nets
I wrote about this in our game guide for this one.
The Nets are playing really small and Ivica Zubac will be the best rebounder on the floor pretty much anytime he's in. I had taken this at over 7.5 early Tuesday at -130 but, to no surprise, yesterday's price is not today's price…
Still, I like Zubac reaching at least nine boards for the second time in three games and third time this season, and I even like sprinkling on him to reach 10 or more boards at +135.
Pick: Ivica Zubac Over 8.5 Rebounds
Trail Blazers vs. Kings
The Kings were a welcome surprise last season under head coach Mike Brown. He brought Sacramento from the 24th best offense to the best in the league, thanks in part to a trade for Domantas Sabonis and his ability to get the best out of De'Aaron Fox.
However, the Kings will be without Fox for the fourth straight game, and he's been the difference in Sacramento's ability to play elite offense and having the worst offense in the league. In the first three games of the season with Fox playing, Sacramento had the ninth-best Offensive Rating in the league (116.4). Without him, they have an awful 100.7 Offensive Rating, by far the worst offense in the league. Fox has the sixth-most drastic impact on his team's Offensive Rating of anyone in the league (+21.6), per Cleaning the Glass. It's not the most telling. Tre Jones is first at +28.3 and Cedi Osman is fourth at +23, likely because they're competent offensive players on the worst offensive team in the league, but he ranked in the 94th percentile in On/Off Points Per Possession last season as well (+6.9).
The only team close to the Kings offensive woes are the Blazers, regardless of their roster. They have the worst offense in the league (103.8), but a surprisingly strong defense (109.2) that ranks ninth. The loss of Robert Williams III is certainly a blow defensively, but neither team plays with enough pace to cause me too much concern. This total is on the move, even as I write this, but I have this game much lower and would play to 218.5.
Pick: Under 221.5 | Play to 218.5
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