NBA Odds, Expert Picks: Wednesday’s Best Bets, Including Bulls-Wizards, Pistons-Pelicans
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images. Pictured: DeMar DeRozan #11 of the Chicago Bulls.
- Wednesday night is an NBA bettors dream with 11 games on the evening slate.
- Our best bets for Wednesday include picks for Bulls vs. Wizards and Pistons vs. Pelicans.
- Read on for our expert picks and predictions for those games below.
Wednesdays are the best day of the week in the NBA and with 11 games on the schedule, fans and bettors will get some truly fun matchups tonight. The national TV slate has an exciting doubleheader: Hawks vs. Knicks (7:30 p.m. ET) Celtics vs. Suns (10 p.m ET).
Our NBA analysts are taking the unbeaten path, though, with three bets in two League Pass exclusives. Among their best bets for Wednesday are a race to score prop, a spread and a player prop.
Check out their expert picks and predictions for tonight’s matchups below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Washington Wizards vs. Chicago Bulls
Jim Turvey: I absolutely love this pick. Of course, any time you’re playing a first to five prop there is inherent volatility, but if the books aren’t going to weigh jump-ball data heavily enough, in the long run it’s a plus money play.
That’s the deal here on Wednesday. The Wizards send Kristaps Porzingis into the circle to jump, and he wins over 80% of his jump balls. The Bulls will counter with Nikola Vucevic who wins just 22% of the time. All of this data in this play is from fellow Action Network contributor NBA First Basket. OUTSTANDING work from him.
The Wizards are able to convert all those won tips into a 54% hit rate on first basket, while the Bulls sit at just 30%. And when thinking about this as first to five, I also like to weigh a team’s ability to hit 3s since it makes a huge difference in a race to five.
The Wizards are no great shakes when it comes to 3-pointers hit per game, but even they rank ahead of the Bulls who hit the third-fewest threes per game this season in the NBA.
Washington Wizards vs. Chicago Bulls
Chris Baker: This feels like a nice spot to buy low on the Bulls who have lost three straight games. The Bulls are returning home after a six-game road trip that saw them go 2-4. During their road-trip they played five teams that rank top-12 in adjusted net rating.
Now they get the 23rd ranked Washington Wizards who will be without their leading scorer Bradley Beal. This Bulls team has struggled to start through their first 23 games going just (9-14) but it is important to dig a little deeper when evaluating teams.
The Bulls have actually played the league’s most difficult schedule, according to Dunks And Threes. They have been particularly solid on defense as they rank fourth in Adjusted Defensive Rating despite playing the most difficult schedule of opposing offenses. Their defense has allowed the third-highest 3-point percentage (38.1%).
The fact that they rank fourth in Adjusted Defensive Rating despite teams shooting the ball well against them indicates to me that they may be due for some positive regression. This is a great matchup for that 3-point regression to set in as the Wizards rank just 21st in 3-point Rate and accuracy.
This Wizards team has been solid and Kyle Kuzma has been impressive, but I think that they are a little bit over-valued relative to the Bulls. The Wizards have not played a particularly difficult schedule (17th). They’ve gone 1-4 over their last five games despite playing three teams that rank bottom-10 in adjusted net rating.
This team averages just 110 points per 100 possessions (29th percentile) with Bradley Beal off the court. That’s not going to cut it against this stout Bulls defense and I expect the Bulls to lock down the Wizards in this one.
Detroit Pistons vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Munaf Manji: The Pelicans welcome the Pistons to Nola Wednesday night and I am full on fading the Pistons against the point guard position here tonight.
McCollum has flourished against the Pistons in his career and he has gone over this line in his last four games against the Pistons on points alone. McCollum has struggled shooting the basketball over his last two games, but the matchup tonight gives him the opportunity to get out of this funk.
Thus far this season, the Pistons are one of the worst defenses against the point guard position. They are allowing 25.7 points and 8.9 assists per game. The perimeter defense has been atrocious for the Pistons and their defense overall has been terrible where they rank 29th in defensive efficiency (117.2).
I expect a big night for McCollum I would play this up to 26.5.