Hawks vs. Knicks Odds & Prediction: Betting Value on Over/Under

Hawks vs. Knicks Odds & Prediction: Betting Value on Over/Under article feature image

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks.

  • The Knicks are short favorites (-1.5) at home against the Hawks Wednesday.
  • The Knicks are looking to build on their latest win, but Joe Dellera sees value in the total between two inconsistent offenses.
  • He breaks down the Hawks vs. Knicks odds, pick and prediction below.

Hawks vs. Knicks Odds

Hawks Odds+2
Knicks Odds-2
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks head into Madison Square Garden to face a New YorkKnicks team (and fanbase) that would like nothing more than to put him on ice and send Atlanta home with a loss.

Can the Knicks defend home court or will Young and the Hawks take the Garden by storm yet again? Let's break it down.

Hawks Suffering From Poor Shot Selection

The Hawks have had an interesting season so far as they have had to adjust to the arrival of Dejounte Murray as he joined Trae Young to compose one of the most dynamic backcourts in the NBA. Since Murray's arrival, the Hawks have undergone quite a few changes as a team. Aside from those changes, two key players who they will be without tonight are John Collins (ankle) and De'Andre Hunter (hip) so we need to account for that in their rotations.

One of the major changes for this Hawks team has been their complete abandonment of the 3-point shot. Atlanta has swung from being a team with elite 3-point shooting in terms of percentages and frequency to being one of the worst.

The Hawks are taking the fewest percentage of their shots from beyond the arc (29.3%) and they are making just 32.7% of those looks (27th in the league). Additionally, they are not attacking the rim, rather they are settling for and relying on midrange jumpers. They take 39.6% of their shots from midrange, the highest percentage in the league.

This is having a noticeable effect on their offense. The Hawks are just 19th in Adjusted Offensive Rating and it has been difficult for them to gain traction on a nightly basis. They are scoring just 94.7 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt, and if they are unable to get out in transition, this Hawks team can be severely limited on the offensive end.

Knicks' Woeful Shooting Continues

The Knicks are relatively healthy heading into this matchup, with only Ryan Arcidiacono (ankle) on the injury report. They have modified their rotations and now are starting Quentin Grimes and considering Derrick Rose has now fallen out of the rotation there are many questions regarding the veteran guard's status with the Knicks.

The Knicks have had a relatively disappointing season with their 11-13 record and 19th-ranked Adjusted Net Rating (-1.2). They have struggled offensively at times despite the strong play of Jalen Brunson but the defensive effort and execution has been fleeting and they are ranked 19th in Adjusted Defensive Rating (113.0).

One of New York's major issues offensively is they cannot make 3s even if the basket was the size of a barn door. They are shooting a league-worst 31.3% from deep, and now face an Atlanta defense that not only limits 3-point opportunities but also has third-best 3-point percentage allowed in the league. The Knicks will need to rely on their ability to get to the rack to succeed in this game if they want to take care of business.

Hawks-Knicks Pick

Both of these teams play at a relatively fast Pace — Atlanta plays at the eighth fastest and the Knicks play at the twelfth. However, given the way these offenses have struggled, they often are just out there doing cardio on the offensive side of the floor.

I think this should be a close game given the talent on these teams, but I also think it should a low-scoring game despite the Pace. This total sits at 233.5, and it is a touch high.

Over each of the Knicks' and Hawks' last 10 games, they are averaging 111.8 and 111.9 points per game, respectively. Neither team is shooting particularly well from 3-point range, and without some semblance of effective and efficient 3-point shooting, I struggle to envision these teams hitting this total.

Pick: Under 233

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 14, 2024 UTC