NBA Betting Odds and Picks (Wednesday, Aug. 5): Betting Predictions for Grizzlies vs. Jazz
David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Mitchell.
Grizzlies vs. Jazz Betting Odds
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|Grizzlies odds||+4.5 [BET NOW]|
|Jazz odds||-4.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+160/-191 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||225 [BET NOW]|
|Time||2:30 p.m. ET|
The Grizzlies entered the bubble with a significant lead in the race for the Western Conference’s No. 8 Seed, but is it time to panic after an 0-3 start? After a nail-biter against the Pelicans, the Jazz have dropped two in a row to the Thunder and the Lakers. Which team will right the ship as they look towards the playoffs?
The Grizzlies need a to hold the No. 8 seed for a potential play-in scenario. All three of their losses were to teams that are beneath them in the standings.
To add to the Grizzlies’ losses, per Adrian Wojnarowski, Jaren Jackson, Jr. will miss the rest of the season after suffering a meniscus tear in his left knee. The team will miss his exuberance along with his 17.4 points per game.
The Grizzlies have a -5.6 Net Rating in the bubble — the 4th worst mark — and those numbers support the eye test. Ja Morant struggled mightily against the Pelicans scoring just 11 points on 5/21 shooting, a far cry from his season average of 17.7 points on 48.2% shooting. The Grizzlies desperately need Morant to replicate his 25-point performance against the Jazz on November 15th, the only Grizzlies win in the matchup this season.
Despite Morant’s recent poor performance, Grayson Allen has emerged as a bright spot for Memphis. He scored 15 and 17 points in his last two games while shooting 58%, per NBA.com and has earned more minutes in the Grizzlies’ rotations. Allen provides the Grizzlies with floor spacing that is invaluable as that should open up the lane for Morant to drive and attack the rim.
The Jazz continue to miss Bojan Bogdanovic around the arc. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Jazz had a 56.9% effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and shot 40.6% from beyond the arc when Bogdanovic was on the court this season. Over the past three bubble games, the Jazz are the second-worst from three-point range (26.3%) and they have the fourth-worst eFG% (48.5%). However, the Jazz are shooting into a bit of bad luck as their Location eFG% of 54.0% (if they shot league average from each location).
The Jazz will lean on Donovan Mitchell as he is off a 33-point performance against the Lakers, and he should perform well in this matchup against Ja Morant. Rudy Gobert needs to lock up Jonas Valancunis in the post and continue his efficient scoring in the bubble.
Betting Analysis & Pick
One key aspect of this matchup will happen in the short-mid range game. The Grizzlies and the Jazz shoot from this spot at top three rates in the league. Whoever can dominate the paint defensively will force the other to adjust. With Rudy Gobert securing the paint, it should force the Grizzlies to move beyond the arc and take a shot they do not take often and are not good at – 31.8% of shots from three point range on 35.2% shooting.
The Jazz are a consistent playoff team. Even without Bogdanovic, I expect them to take care of business against this young Grizzlies team.
The Pick: Jazz -4.5 (I’d bet to -6)