NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Brook Lopez Has Huge Mismatch in Bucks vs. Thunder

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Milwaukee Bucks vs.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Brook Lopez | Grayson Allen

The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the  Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday evening. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (9% opening-tip win rate) will likely be jumping at center against Brook Lopez (72% win rate).

The two centers have never faced off against each other on the opening tip, but this might be the biggest mismatch in terms of opening-tip win rate that we will see all season. I would fully expect Milwaukee get the first possession.

Milwaukee scored first 50% of the time last season but has been more successful this season, scoring first in 80% of games. The Thunder have significantly struggled to win any opening-tips, and as a result, they are not very good at scoring first. Last season, they had a first score success rate of 35%, and they are hovering near that rate again for the current season.

Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo have combined to take the first shot 80% of the time this season and they have scored the first team field goal for the Bucks in 80% of the games as well. Holiday is doubtful for this matchup due to an ankle sprain.

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Oklahoma City gave up the first opposing field goal last season to the center position in 26% of games played. This season, they have allowed the opposing center to score first 40% of the time.

The Bucks hosted the Thunder on Saturday night, with Brook Lopez taking the first shot and draining a 3-pointer to cash the first basket. Lopez went on to score 25 points against the Thunder that evening. It should be noted that Antetokounmpo did not play in the game on Saturday night.

With Holiday likely out, I think the Bucks will try to get Lopez and Grayson Allen the ball early and one of them will take the first shot. Allen hit the 3-point exact method 73% of the time when making a first team score last year, so I prefer using the exact method for him.  If you don't have exact method, I'd play first field goal for him.

The Pick: Lopez First Basket (0.75 units, +650); play down to (+475) | Grayson Allen exact method 3 pointer (0.25 units, +1100); play down to (+800)

Bucks vs. Thunder First Basket Data

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