NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bet Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart in Heat vs. Celtics (May 29)

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Heat vs.

Celtics

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart

Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals takes place in Boston on Monday evening as the Celtics host the Heat.

Al Horford (40% opening tip win rate) will face off against Bam Adebayo (55% win rate) for the opening tip-off. Adebayo, who's won the last three opening tips, has won four of seven this season versus Horford.

Boston and Miami have played each other a total of 10 times this season — the Celtics have scored first in seven of those games. Jayson Tatum (twice), Jaylen Brown (twice), Derrick White, Marcus Smart and Horford have cashed first-basket tickets for the Celtics, while Adebayo (twice) and Kevin Love have cashed for the Heat.

This series is one of the rare instances where I continue to pick a team to score first despite not winning the opening tip.  The defense played by the Celtics in early possessions has been that solid.

Tatum and Brown led the Celtics this season in first baskets made, a trend that's carried into the playoffs.  Tatum has taken the Celtics' first attempt in the past two games.

I think Tatum and Brown have an equal chance to score first, though Brown's odds have more value. In addition, Smart has put together back-to-back games of more than 20 points; he has a lot of confidence as Boston heads into the deciding Game 7.

Pick: Jaylen Brown First Basket (+500 | Play to +400); Risk 0.6 Units

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Pick: Marcus Smart First Basket (+1100 | Play to +850); Risk 0.3 Units

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Heat vs. Celtics First Basket Prop Data

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