NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Bet Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart in Celtics vs Heat

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Heat vs.

Celtics

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart

The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night.

Robert Williams (91% opening tip win rate) will square off against Bam Adebayo (56% win rate) for the opening tip-off. Williams started Games 6 and 7 for the Celtics in their second-round series, and is expected to continue to start in this series. Over the past two seasons, Adebayo has won four of seven opening tips versus Williams. In case Al Horford starts instead, Adebayo has won just one of five opening tips against Horford.

These teams played four games against each other this season with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Derrick White scoring first baskets for the Celtics. Adebayo cashed a first basket ticket for the Heat.

Looking back over the past two seasons, these teams have played 14 games and the Celtics have scored first 10 times.

Based off the data above, I like Boston to score first in this game. In Boston's 13 playoff games this season, Brown has scored the first team basket six times, while Tatum has scored the first team basket five times. Both players averaged over 30 points per game against the Heat this season.

I'll take Brown to score the first basket in this one. I'll also add Marcus Smart as he has a higher usage rate (defined as taking one of the first three shot attempts for the Celtics) in the playoffs than Tatum.

The Picks:

Pick: Jaylen Brown (+440) | Risk 0.75 Units, Play to +360

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Pick: Marcus Smart (+1400) | Risk 0.25 Units, Play to +1000

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