NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen Have Value in Nets vs. Bucks (October 26)
Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jrue Holiday #21 of the Milwaukee Bucks.
NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jrue Holiday First Basket | Grayson Allen Exact Method — 3-Point
|Prop||Holiday +650 | Allen +1400|
|Matchup||Nets vs. Bucks|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Milwaukee Bucks host the Brooklyn Nets Wednesday in Milwaukee. Brook Lopez (74% opening-tip win rate) will be jumping at center against Nic Claxton (47% win rate). The two faced off against each other just once last season, with Lopez winning the tip, but I think Milwaukee will win the tip in this one.
Both teams were pretty similar last season in early possessions, with Brooklyn scoring first 55% of the time and Milwaukee scoring first 50% of the time. In the four games last season between these teams, each team scored first twice.
Milwaukee is not on overly complex team to figure out in terms of first baskets. Jrue Holiday took the team's first shot attempt in 28% of the games he started, and cashed the first game field goal bet in 14% of games started.
The Bucks have leaned on Holiday consistently in early possessions for the past two seasons. Holiday has scored the first field goal for the Bucks in each game this season, and took the teams second shot attempt in both games.
Another key theme for the Bucks is throwing up an early 3-pointer with their first shot attempt. Last season, they took a 3-pointer with their first attempt 47% of the time (league average was 38%).
The Bucks also have the benefit of going up against the NBA's worst defense so far this season. Ben Simmons will likely be guarding Holiday or Grayson Allen, but he has struggled defensively to start the season.
I’m going to take Holiday first basket tonight for +0.75 units. Current odds on FanDuel are +650; I would play that down to +500. In addition, I'm going to sprinkle a 0.25U on Grayson Allen (also on FanDuel) with exact method first basket — 3 pointer at +1400.
If you don't have exact method betting in your state, you could instead play the 0.25U on Grayson Allen first field goal, which is +950 at DraftKings.
Nets vs. Bucks First Basket Data
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