NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Undervalued in Wizards vs. Pacers (October 19)

Kristaps Porzingis

The Washington Wizards take on the Indiana Pacers as the two teams begin their NBA seasons. Kristaps Porzingis (66% opening-tip win rate) will be taking on Myles Turner (33% win rate) in the opening tip-off.

Despite the fact that Turner controlled the tip in their only matchup in December 2021, Porzingis has a significant advantage and should control the tip.

Both teams ranked in the bottom third of the league in scoring first last season. Despite that, the Wizards were the second-most efficient team in the league in early possessions as they averaged 1.9 shot attempts to make their first field goal.

The Wizards and Pacers have both had significant makeovers to their starting rosters through trades made last season and free agency. That generally makes determining the first basket scorer more difficult, absent any other information.

I like to look at which positions a team allows to score the first opposing team field goal when researching this prop bet. The Pacers were weakest against centers last season allowing opposing centers to make the first team field goal for their opponents 26% of the time.

Porzingis played in three games last season against the Pacers (two with Dallas and one with Washington) and scored first in two of the three games. In the 51 games he started last season, he took the first team field goal attempt 51% of the time – that was the most in the league. In addition, Porzingis made the first basket in 29% of games started.

I’m playing Porzingis first basket which is currently at +550 on FanDuel. I would play this one down to +400 as I think it is currently undervalued. Check out the statistics below for more information.

Pick: Kristaps Porzingis First Basket (+550)

Wizards vs. Pacers First Basket Data