NBA First Basket Prop Picks: Bet Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson in Rockets vs. Knicks (March 27)
Via Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images. Pictured: Mitchell Robinson #23 hi-fives Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks during the game against the Indiana Pacers on January 4, 2022 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.
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NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson
|Odds||Randle (+330) I Robinson (+900)|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The New York Knicks host the Houston Rockets on Monday night at Madison Square Garden. Mitchell Robinson (67% opening tip win rate) will go up against Jabari Smith (34% win rate) for the opening tip-off. This looks like the biggest mismatch of the night in terms of tip-off advantage.
The Rockets have allowed the opposing center to score first in 27% of games this season. We’ve seen a sharp increase in this recently with centers scoring first against the Rockets in nine of the last 13 games.
The Knicks’ first possessions have been dominated by Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson. On a combined basis, one of them takes the first shot in 70% of games started this season. Randle has taken the first team shot in nine of the last 12 games for the Knicks
Brunson is questionable for tonight’s matchup with a hand injury. He has missed six of the last 10 games, including Thursday’s matchup with the Magic.
Randle’s odds are low for this one. Assuming Brunson is out, I believe his line should be +270. I’ll take Randle and pair him with Robinson for a first basket. I’m willing to risk a bit more than one unit due to the tip advantage.
Pick: Julius Randle First Field Goal +330 (Risk 0.9 Units | play to +275)
Pick: Mitchell Robinson First Field Goal +900 (Risk 0.35 Units | Play to +700)
Rockets vs. Knicks First Basket Prop Data
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