NBA Futures Picks, Predictions: Which Teams Will Make the Playoffs?

We are barreling down the homestretch of the NBA regular season, and it's never too late to find some potential value in the "To Make the Playoffs" market.

Let's get to my NBA futures picks and predictions and evaluate which teams we think will punch their ticket to the playoffs in the homestretch of the regular season.

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NBA Playoffs Predictions, Picks: Which Teams Will Make the Postseason?

Heat to Make the Playoffs: Yes

The Heat are now a deeply concerning 6-12 straight up and against the spread when both Tyler Herro and Norman Powell play. It's alarming that they have their two best offensive players back, and the results have been catastrophic.

However, I can’t get past the schedule here.

Miami plays Boston on April 1, but overall, the Heat face Indiana (tanking), the Raptors twice (huge games), the Wizards twice, and then Atlanta (which leads the division) in the final game of the season.

I have the Heat projected as favorites in most games. Philadelphia is always a question mark given injuries, but I still have them projected as favorites against the Raptors, even on the road, in both games.

I have Miami projected to finish 45-37, tied with the Raptors for the 7th, drawing a home game against Toronto for the 7-spot.

The Raptors lead 2-0 for the tiebreaker, and even if the Heat win both games against the Raptors, Toronto has the conference record tiebreaker. However, division leader could come back and influence this.

If Atlanta ever cools off, the Heat have a chance to clinch the tiebreaker over them in the last game of the season. They also have tiebreaker over the Hornets.

Let’s say that Toronto, Charlotte, Miami, and Atlanta finish tied for 5-8. If Miami wins the final game vs. Atlanta to force the tie, Miami would win the division, which supercedes all tiebreakers in multi-team ties. This also helps if in securing the seventh seed in various scenarios.

This is important because no seventh seed has failed to make the playoffs in the play-in tournament’s five seasons. But even if they finish 8th, the Heat will have two chances at making the playoffs, with one game at home.

As long as they don’t play Orlando, who has murked them the last two seasons, the Heat should be in a good spot. Their odds should be closer to 70c based on schedule.

Raptors to Make the Playoffs: No

The Raptors’ schedule has gimmes on it: Brooklyn in the last game of the season, Sacramento and Memphis — but, they also face New York, who will likely still be chasing the Celtics, a huge game Sunday vs. Orlando, and Boston along with the two games mentioned above against Miami.

I have them finishing 45-37, going 4-5 over their last nine. Let’s say they split the Heat games and go 1-1, finishing 46-37.

The Raptors are currently in fifth place, which is why their price is so low to miss — but their remaining schedule and overall profile suggests they are likely to get caught enough to fall.

Now, slipping into the 8th seed is a lot (given that 7-seeds have never failed to miss), but their tiebreaker situation isn’t terrible or great. They own the tiebreaker over Charlotte, Atlanta, and Miami — but as mentioned above, the division could complicate that if the Heat win both games against them.

Then, there’s the Sixers issue.

The Raptors split the season series with Philly 2-2, but the Sixers own the division record tiebreaker. Basically, Toronto will be fine in any multi-team tie that isn’t for the division — but struggles in the rest of those combinations.

Toronto has had too many issues with good teams to chalk in wins with this schedule. I’m willing to sell high on them with the ability to cash out if this reaches something closer to 40c as things tighten down the stretch.

Suns to Make the Playoffs: No

The Suns are going to be the 7th seed. The other teams have the tiebreaker advantage, and the Suns’ schedule is just tough/easy enough to secure that they’ll be 7th. I have them finishing two full games ahead of the Clippers and two full games behind the Rockets.

The problem is that the Clippers are definitely going to be 8th. I have them two games behind the Suns and three games ahead of the Warriors, even if Steph Curry were to come back immediately.

So it’s going to be Clippers-Suns in the 7-8 matchup. I make the Clippers 56% in that game.

Now, I have mentioned several times the 7th seed has never failed to miss the playoffs in five years of the play-in. So clearly, with two home games, the Suns need to be favorites here — but I don’t think it needs to be 75% or higher.

If the Warriors get the trio of Steph, Draymond Green, and Kristaps Porzingis on the floor against a Suns team that has played great this year but lacks both experience together and a cohesive clear-cut reliable identity, that opens the door for Steph to do what Steph does — and that’s light up a team on their home floor.

Based on power rating, I have this projected right around this number, and actually a little higher at 77% to win one between the Clippers and Warriors games. But that’s including the impact of Curry’s absence cratering the Warriors who have been pitiful without him.

The Warriors are a fundamentally different team with Curry. That’s how impactful he is.

If the number is too high by more than two percentage points, there’s value — and I think it’s probably too high given how they’ve played since their trades, combined with the Golden State/Curry factor.

I would buy at 25c and sell somewhere around 40c, especially before the potential second play-in game vs. Golden State.