NBA Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Celtics vs Heat Game 6

NBA Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Celtics vs Heat Game 6 article feature image

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat.

  • The Miami Heat sit one win away from the NBA Finals as they host the surging Boston Celtics.
  • Action Network's NBA analysts have five best bets today and are approaching Game 6 in various ways, including props, totals and more.
  • Check out their expert picks for Celtics vs. Heat below.

Looking to bet Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals? Check out the betting picks our NBA staff is making for Heat vs. Celtics here.

The Eastern Conference Finals have gotten quite interesting. After falling into an 0-3 hole, the Boston Celtics have ripped off two convincing wins against the Miami Heat to make this a series again. With Game 6 in Miami, the pressure is on the Heat to close out at home and avoid a potential seventh game on the road in Boston.

Our Action Network betting analysts have five best bets today, including a parlay, player props and more angles for Saturday's potential elimination game. Check out their expert picks for Celtics vs. Heat Game 6 below.

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Celtics vs. Heat Parlay
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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Heat ML + Jimmy Butler ECF MVP parlay (+270)
8:30 p.m. ET

Bryan Fonseca: I picked the Miami Heat to win this series, and in knowing that, Jimmy Butler would be the Eastern Conference Finals MVP.

The value of that would've been amazing if you had gotten this ahead of the series, but if you think the Heat close this out at home, you basically have to parlay this with Butler winning ECF MVP, because he'd win it.

If the Heat win Game 6, Butler will have to be the engine, and even if Bam Adebayo or Caleb Martin lead the team in points, the voters will lean Butler for obvious reasons.

The Heat have had six bad quarters, but many of their mistakes are fixable, and Erik Spoelstra is probably the best guy to have in a game where an emphatic response has needed.

No NBA team has more playoff wins this decade than the Heat who have 36, all after Butler's arrival and Adebayo's emergence, and you don't reach that tally without having the character to overcome these dire situations.

They need to stop turning the ball over, play with more urgency, hit the requisite threes, and disallow Boston from comfortably launching some of theirs — all of which they did to mount this 3-0 lead to begin with.

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Grant Williams o7.5 | 10+ points

Joe Dellera: Grant Williams has been an integral part of this Celtics turnaround and he has seen consistent minutes after his Game 1 DNP. In the four games he has played this series, he has exceeded 7.5 points in three of them while averaging 10.3 ppg. He is a much needed presence on the defensive and offensive sides of the ball due to his hustle and 3-point shooting.

Grant has played over 25 minutes in each game he’s seen action this series. When he has played at least 25 minutes this season, Grant has averaged 10.7 ppg and exceeded 7.5 points in 77% of games this season with 10+ in 60% of games. I’ll play his base line and 10+ as well.

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Heat 2H Moneyline (+123)

Brandon AndersonI have many thoughts (and bets) for this game, which I expect to have a significant level of desperation from the Heat.

Game 7 in Boston is a daunting task for Miami. The Heat do not want to go back to Boston. Home teams win 76% of all Game 7s historically, and Boston is nearly invincible at 22-5 all-time in home Game 7s. This Celtics core has won six of seven Game 7s.

If you want to bet a side on this game, you've got two options: Heat moneyline +130 (FanDuel) or Celtics series +125 (BetMGM).

If you think Miami wins the series, you have to bet on them finding a way in Game 6. If you think the Celtics get Game 6, forget the spread and bet on them to finish the historic 0-3 comeback and get Game 7 too. No half measures.

Miami is 4-1 straight up in the second half of games in this series. The Heat are 11-3-2 SU in second halves this postseason, and all three times they lost the second half, they also lost the game. If Miami is to have any chance this game, they have to win the second half.

What else is new? This has been a second half team against the Bubble. Just look at the Net Rating playoff splits:

2020: -3.1 (first half), +7.4 (second half)
2022: +0.3 (first half), +7.3 (second half)
2023: +0.7 (first half), +7.3 (second half)

Boston has been a first-half team all year and the Heat are a second-half team.

I like this play regardless of game script. If Boston comes out hot and takes an early lead, Miami has to empty the tank at home and push for its best chance at a win, possibly against an overconfident Celtics team that's been vulnerable in that state. If Miami leads instead, Boston has shown a fragile mental state and Miami should be in position to close this out.

I'm not willing to invest in either side of a game that looks unpredictable and up for grabs, but I'll bet on Miami desperation — for a half. Give me Heat to win the second half outright at +123.

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo o2.5 turnovers (-125)

Anderson: One more on Game 6. Bam Adebayo's rebounding and playmaking has been down outside of a monster Game 2, but we started to see more aggression last game. I don't mind fading the rebounds or assists again, but I'll pivot to turnovers. Adebayo is averaging 3.6 turnovers and has been a Boston target, with 10 turnovers the last two games.

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Under 210

Chris Baker: I wrote the Celtics vs Heat betting guide and I have one prop angle I'm considering. But I'm really focused on the total.

Jimmy Butler should see significantly more usage in Game 6 and while that may increase the offensive efficiency of the Heat, I expect it to simultaneously slow down the pace of the game. If we see the ball in his hands more, I think we'll also see more late shot-clock scenarios and an overall slower pace throughout the game.

These teams are becoming more and more familiar with each other and that should lead to better defense. The Heat will come into Game 6 with an emphasis on taking care of the ball, leading to a slower pace, and forcing the Celtics to play in the halfcourt.

I expect the Celtics to regress offensively as they are forced to go against Heat lineups without Lowry, Love, or Robinson. I expect Game 6 to have Game 7 intensity and I already took the under at 211.5. I would play this down to 210.

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May 26, 2024 UTC