NBA Play-In Tournament: Heat vs 76ers Prediction, Odds, Pick (Wednesday, April 17)

Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs. 76ers on Wednesday, April 17 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Heat will travel to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers in a crucial 7 vs. 8 play-in game. Can the Heat pull off the upset, or will the 76ers claim the 7-seed?

Let's dig into the NBA play-in odds and make a Heat vs. 76ers pick and prediction.

Miami made a concerted effort to push the ball in transition off live rebounds in the most recent matchup between these two April 4. The Heat had an insanely high 48.6% transition rate off live rebounds and ranked in the 78th percentile in offensive rating in those scenarios. Overall, they had a transition rate of 22.1% (96th percentile) and an elite transition offensive rating that ranked 95th percentile in terms of efficiency, per Cleaning the Glass.

This transition rate may drop a little bit given this is essentially a playoff game and playoff games tend to be played in the half-court, but I would expect Erik Spoelstra to make this a point of emphasis for the Heat offense once again. The Heat had tremendous success in transition and the 76ers have struggled with transition defense with Joel Embiid on the floor this season.

The problem for the Heat offense was in the half-court, where they had an awful offensive rating of 76.5 (fifth percentile). They were just completely unable to make shots, shooting an awful 47.1% at the rim and just 28% from 3. They also turned the ball over on about 17% of their possessions. The Heat simply have to make more shots if they want to win this game.

Tyler Herro returning to the lineup for this one should benefit their offense. Herro has averaged 21 points and five assists over his last six games since returning from injury. Herro, along with Duncan Robinson continuing to ramp up his minutes, should make a marked difference for this Miami offense.

On the flip side of the ball, the 76ers' offense also has room for improvement, as they scored just 112.4 points per 100 possessions (40th percentile) in that April 4 performance against the Heat. Miami did a great job of defending without fouling, as Philadelphia had just a 9.9% free-throw rate (eighth percentile).

Embiid attempted only five free throws in that game, a testament to how effective Bam Adebayo and this Heat defense were. Defending without fouling is definitely the first priority when facing this 76ers offense that ranked third in offensive free-throw rate on the year. The 76ers had an unreal 28.9% free-throw rate with Embiid on the court, meaning they made about 29 free throws for every 100 field goals they attempted. That rate would rank them No. 1 in the NBA by about seven free throws if you prorated it out for the entire season — to give you an idea of just how abnormal this offense is.

Miami absolutely must force Philadelphia to make shots if it wants to give itself a chance. The Heat defense also did a great job of limiting rim looks considering the 76ers attempted just 21% of their shots at the rim and converted on just 50% of those shots last game. Philadelphia also was unable to generate second chances, rebounding just 21% of its offensive shots.

All of the things Miami did last game are the things the Heat always do under Spoelstra: transition defense, defensive rebounding and taking away the rim. This team is elite at the little things, and this game will be decided by if they have the talent to shoot well enough to keep up with the high-powered 76ers.

I lean towards the Sixers -4, but I think there may be some value on the Over 207.

I expect Herro to boost the Heat’s offensive efficiency, but another reason I like this bet is the potential for heavy Kevin Love minutes. Adebayo was a -29 in that five-point loss to the 76ers on April 4, but Love was a +25 and took up all the minutes at center when Adebayo was out. Love played just 19 minutes but racked up four offensive rebounds and 12 defensive boards while dishing out four assists.

It was evident how much better the Heat offense was with Love, an elite shooter, spacing Embiid away from the rim. It’s no guarantee that Love plays vastly more, but +25 versus -29 is hard to ignore, and I would not be shocked to see Love play more given how amazing he was just 13 days ago.

The Heat need more offense, and if that causes Love, Herro and Robinson to play more, it is going to vastly decrease their defensive efficiency. This has been a consistent theme all season long, with Adebayo crippling their offensive efficiency; their offensive rating drops from 119.2 with him off the court to 111.5 when he is on the floor. I think the Heat will need to play Love more in this one.

The other thing leading me to the Over is the reality that the 76ers' defense is likely slightly overrated since they played the second-easiest schedule of opposing defenses this season. We saw the Heat exploit them in transition, and I expect Miami to continue to make an effort to play fast and beat Embiid down the court. If the Heat can convert on more than 28% of their 3s this time around, this game will go over this low number.

Pick: Over 208

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