NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: De’Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson Have Value Monday (November 7)
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: De’Aaron Fox #5 of the Sacramento Kings.
- All 30 teams are in acton on Monday, which means there are more than enough player props available to find value.
- Alex Hinton is targeting three guards for his top player prop bets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson and De'Aaron Fox.
- Find out how he's betting each of their props below.
Monday night should be a solid night for betting player props in the NBA. Tuesday is Election Day in America and there are not any NBA games scheduled. Instead, all 30 teams will be in action on Monday night.
Additionally, there were just four games on Sunday, meaning just eight teams will be playing on a back-to-back. With many teams entering Monday with at least one day off, many players will have an extra day of rest.
Here are the prop bets and picks I have circled for Monday night.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 Points (-115)
|Thunder vs. Pistons||Spread|
|Time | TV||7:30 PM ET | NBA League Pass|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was due for an off night and that came on Saturday night against the Milwaukee Bucks where he scored 18 points on 7-of-16 shooting from the field. However, SGA has been on a scoring tear to begin this season.
He is averaging 30.5 points per game, has scored at least 28 points in six of eight games and 30 points in five of those eight games this season. As the focal point of the OKC offense, the volume is there for Gilgeous-Alexander as well. He is averaging 21.3 field goal attempts per game, but he is shooting 53.5% from the field.
For a player that likes to operate in the mid range area and on drives to the basket, the Bucks were a difficult matchup for him. Milwaukee is tied for second in the league in points allowed in the paint per game and first in field goal percentage. Detroit represents an excellent bounce back spot for him.
The Pistons are 27th in field goal allowed, 28th in points allowed, and 30th in defending point guards. This season, the Pistons have already given up big scoring nights to Tyrese Hailburton, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, and Jrue Holiday.
Like the Thunder, the Pistons are a rebuilding team. The oddmakers (and myself) expect a tight battle with the Pistons opening as 1.5 point favorites at home. If the tight battle comes to fruition, SGA will play 30+ minutes, which will give him every opportunity to go over this line.
Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists (-122)
|Knicks vs. Timberwolves||Knicks +4.5|
|Time | TV||9:15 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Jalen Brunson was the Knicks' big free agent acquisition this offseason and thus far the early returns have been excellent. He ranks 12th in the league with 7.2 assists per game against just 1.6 turnovers. He has orchestrated this offense so well that his line has moved from 5.5 at the start of the season to 6.5 assists now. However, even at 6.5, it is still worth a play.
Brunson has finished with seven assists in five of his first nine games. In two other games, he finished with six assists. On Monday night, he will face a Minnesota Timberwolves that is last in the league in assists allowed and is 28th in defending point guards.
Additionally, center Rudy Gobert will be out once again as he remains in Health and Safety Protocols. That means the paint will be accessible for the Knicks big men in the pick-and-roll or via lobs from Brunson.
Brunson ranks 10th in the league with 59.2 passes made per game and he averages 11.9 potential assists as well. The potential is there for Brunson to pile up the assists in what should be a fast paced game.
De'Aaron Fox Over 4.5 Rebounds (-130)
|Kings vs. Warriors||Kings +7.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
For his career, De'Aaron Fox is averaging 3.6 rebounds per game with a career-high of 3.9 rebounds last season. He is on pace to shatter that mark with the start he is off to this season. Fox is averaging 5.9 rebounds per game so this season with a high mark of 13 rebounds against the Miami Heat.
He has recorded five rebounds in six of seven games played this season. In the one game he missed, he played just nine minutes against the Charlotte Hornets after leaving the game with a knee injury.
Fox is essentially averaging six rebounds per game this season and with his line, he would just need to collect five. I like his chances against a Golden State Warriors team that is 19th in rebounds allowed.
In the last meeting against Golden State on Oct. 23, he had five rebounds in 36 minutes. The Warriors also shot 51.7% from the field that night. The Warriors attempt a lot of threes and the misses provide long rebound opportunities for Fox.
With a little shooting regression from the Warriors, he could have a bigger night on the boards.