NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Julius Randle, Goga Bitadze Highlight Top Bets (January 24)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Goga Bitadze #88 of the Indiana Pacers.
- Short NBA slates mean fewer spots to gain an edge in the player prop markets but Monday's games still provide some good betting value.
- Tyler Schmidt has zeroed in on two props tonight using the Action Labs props tool: he is fading one star player and buying in on a key replacement.
- Read on for his analysis and prop picks below.
After a successful weekend where we won four of six props, we look to build on that success heading into this Monday’s slate of NBA games. There are only four games on the slate tonight, so these are the two props that popped.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Julius Randle, Under 33.5 PTS + REB + AST (-120)
|Knicks vs. Cavaliers||Cavaliers -6.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The rollercoaster ride that is the New York Knicks keeps chugging along as they travel on the road for just the third time this month. The Cavaliers are 14-8 against the spread at home this season where they have allowed 104.1 points per 100 possessions.
The Knicks are projected for 97.25 points tonight, which is by far the lowest on the slate, and it doesn’t help that they play at the slowest Pace in the league. This game will be a low-scoring slug fest.
Julius Randle is shooting a career-low 41.4% from the field this season. His 18.9 points per game average is the lowest he has had since his last season with the Los Angeles Lakers. The one positive for Randle is he is still playing an average of 35.5 minutes per game, which ranks among the top 10 in the league. Even if he is struggling, Randle will get the playing time to make this close.
The emergence of RJ Barrett has also taken away from Randle having to do literally everything for the Knicks. Randle still leads the Knicks in points, rebounds, and assists this season. Over his last seven games, Barrett has averaged 24.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and a 29.3% Usage Rate. Barrett is slowly and surely catching up to Randle in his usage and production.
I want to bet on Randle struggling today, but wasn’t sure where exactly he would struggle so taking his under points, rebounds, and assists was my preferred route. The Knicks also made a trade for Cam Reddish who will eventually take away from Randle’s playmaking abilities in the near future. I like this line right where it is at tonight and would not take it any lower.
Goga Bitadze, Over 7.5 Rebounds (-130)
|Pacers vs. Pelicans||Pelicans -3|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Indiana Pacers have been surprisingly competitive on the road despite their injury situation lately. They beat the Warriors in overtime and then lost by only 10 points to the Suns. They are 3-point road underdogs against the Pelicans tonight with very similar injury concerns.
They will be without Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis once again. Those are two big losses as Turner leads the league in blocks per game and Sabonis ranks fourth in rebounds. The center that has taken over in their absence has been Goga Bitadze. He has started the last two games and performed well.
Bitadze is averaging a double-double with 14.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. He played an average of 33.0 minutes per game during that time despite getting ejected midway through the fourth quarter against the Warriors. Playing against the Warriors and Suns who are two of the best defenses in the league is difficult. This Pelicans matchup will be much better.
The Pelicans rank 23rd in Defensive Rating this season and allow their opponents to shoot 46.7% from the field which ranks tied for the fifth-worst in the league. This should be a very competitive game between two below average teams and defenses, which is always a fantasy friendly environment.
Our model loves a ton of Bitadze’s over props today, but his rebound prop of 7.5 stood out the most. We have him projected for 8.8 rebounds tonight which I feel is being conservative. Bitadze passed this prop with ease in the last two games that he started. I would certainly take this prop up to 8.5 rebounds.