Saturday NBA Player Props, Picks: P.J. Washington, Kyle Kuzma Highlight Our Bets
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Kuzma
After only hitting one of three props last night, we try and bounce back with two props on this small four-game slate. This slate isn’t filled with much fantasy goodness as the totals in each game are quite low. The two props I listed below are both in the closest games on the slate, so let’s dive in!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
PJ Washington, Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)
|Hornets vs. Mavericks||Hornets -1.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Charlotte Hornets recent three-game winning streak has led them to a five-game cushion for the last playoff spot in Eastern Conference. They are slight home favorites and implied for 112.5 points.
This game is a battle of who is going to dictate the pace. The Mavericks are the slowest team in the league and allow the second-least amount of points with 103.8 per game. The Hornets play very fast as they rank third in pace this season, averaging 114.9 points per game.
The model is loving PJ Washington tonight so deciding which prop to target was a little difficult. The Mavericks also lead the league in least amount of 3-pointers made per game which was discouraging because Washington has made at least two 3-pointers per game in six of his last eight games.
Washington has also been very boom or bust lately, but this prop of points and rebounds seems far too low for his upside. Washington can get to this number on points alone and he has in three of his last six games. He is a stretch power forward that can provide mismatches with his athleticism on the perimeter.
Our model has Washington projected for 19.4 points and rebounds tonight, which is a lot of value. If the Hornets can keep the tempo high, Washington will easily get over this prop total.
I am interested in taking this prop at an alternative line and banking on Washington’s upside. I would even consider taking this all the way up to 18.5 points and rebounds in this matchup tonight.
Kyle Kuzma, Under 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)
|Wizards vs. Lakers||Wizards -3|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
It has been tough sledding for the Washington Wizards and Kyle Kuzma lately. They have lost six-straight games as they have basically knocked themselves out of playoff contention. They are 6.5-games back of the last possible seed.
The Wizards are implied for a slate-high 115.25 points as they are three-point home favorites. This matchup has the highest total on the slate at 227.5 points. The Lakers present a great matchup for opponents as they rank sixth in pace and allow the fifth-most points against in the league with 113.8 per game.
The playing time for Kuzma seems to have taken a bit of a hit lately. With the Wizards nearly out of the playoff picture it makes sense to not push Kuzma as much seeing that he leads the Wizards in minutes, points, rebounds, and assists. He has had a phenomenal season in his first year with the Wizards.
These two teams played a little over a week ago with the Lakers winning by 13 points. Kuzma had no problem filling up the scoreboard with 23 points as he shot 9-of-18 from the field. However, he had problems with accumulating peripherals. Kuzma finished that game with only seven rebounds and three assists.
Despite the Wizards being favored, Kuzma is only projected for 11.3 rebounds and assists in our model tonight. Kuzma has recorded under 12.5 rebounds and assists in four of his last six games. I would take this line right where it is at tonight. Taking it at 11.5 rebounds and assists is too risky in this great matchup.