NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Jalen Brunson and Kevon Looney Have Value in Game 82 (April 10)
David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Brunson #13 of the Dallas Mavericks.
Welcome to the last day of the NBA regular season!
Today can be a great day for player props, if you attack the lines at the right time. It can also a chaotic day with not many teams having anything to play for on the final day. Let’s see which one we’ll get.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
Let’s dive in for one last time this regular season.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jalen Brunson, Over 3.5 Assists (-110)
|Spurs vs. Mavericks||Mavericks -10|
|Time | TV||9:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Mavericks need a win and a Warriors loss to get the No. 3 seed for the Western Conference playoffs. A loss or Warriors win and they will stay at No. 4, which means a potential second round matchup against the Phoenix Suns.
The Mavericks are double digit home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs who sat everyone last night and may do the same tonight. Luka Doncic had his 16th technical foul of the season rescinded, so he will be eligible to play in this game. That helps their chances and slightly hurts this Jalen Brunson player prop. Still, the line still feels too low at 3.5 assists in this spot against the Spurs who rank third in Pace as this total is set at 224.5 points.
Brunson is averaging a career-high 4.8 assists per game this season. He has done most of his damage with Doncic out of the lineup, but he is still averaging four assists per game in the 61 games that Doncic has been in the lineup.
Brunson has struggled to hit this prop in four-straight games, but this is a perfect bounce back spot against the Spurs. Both Draymond Green and Jordan Poole recorded eight assists last night against this make-shift Spurs lineup. Doncic and Brunson could easily replicate that in this matchup.
Our model has Brunson projected for 5.3 assists, which provides incredible value on the 3.5 prop line. I would consider taking Brunson’s over 4.5 assists for a juiced prop, but I wouldn’t go any higher than that, despite the matchup.
Kevon Looney, Over 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
|Warriors vs. Pelicans||Warriors -5|
|Time | TV||9:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
It is impossible to look at the props dashboard without seeing Kevon Looney props. There are several ways that you can go with Looney tonight so pick your favorite prop with the odds you like and roll with it!
Personally, I’m going with Looney over 4.5 rebounds. Looney has had back-to-back games of five rebounds, despite playing 15 and 12 minutes. We have Looney projected for 20 minutes tonight. That will give him enough opportunities to get over this prop number, even though he has in limited minutes lately.
The Pelicans have been fantastic against opposing bigs this season. They rank eighth in points per game allowed in the paint and third in rebounding percentage. However, the reason there will be more opportunities is the Warriors are incredibly defensively. They allow the second-lowest field goal percentage in the league, while the Pelicans offense ranks 21st in that category.
There are a few juiced props that are intriguing for Looney tonight, but I feel most comfortable taking his rebounds. He should play a little more given the stakes of this game and playing against Jonas Valanciunas. The Warriors will need his size, so expect a good game from Looney in this matchup tonight.
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