NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Scottie Barnes Headlines 3 Value Plays on Sunday Night (March 20)
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors.
Tonight features a medium-sized seven-game NBA slate that features plenty of injuries for some top tier players. These players listed below should all be in the lineup tonight, but always make sure to stay up to date in the news.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Cameron Payne, Under 15.5 Points (-120)
|Kings vs. Suns||Suns -9|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Phoenix Suns continue to lead the league with a record of 57-14. Even without their star point guard Chris Paul, they are an impressive nine games above the next closest team. They are nine-point road favorites tonight.
This game features the second-highest total on the slate at 232.5 points as the Suns have a slate-high 120.75 implied total. This game should have a high tempo as both teams rank in the top 10 of Pace this season.
Cameron Payne has been really good starting at point guard for the Suns. In 10 games without Paul this season, Payne is averaging 14.2 points and 9.5 assists per game. The assist numbers are fantastic, but his scoring is still a bit too low.
This is a prop that I will continue to take until the line is moved down. The value isn’t nearly as high as it has been in the past, but Payne has failed to get 16 or more points in five of his last six games.
Cameron Johnson is still out, but Jae Crowder is listed as questionable tonight. Our model has Payne projected to score 15.8 points tonight, but that still seems high. This matchup is fantastic, but the Suns have such an incredible offense that they won’t need to rely on Payne to score many points tonight. I would take this prop down to 14.5 and take the under to get better value.
Monte Morris, Over 3.5 Assists (+110)
|Nuggets vs. Celtics||Celtics -2.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Denver Nuggets have won 12 of their last 16 games as they remain in the sixth seed in the Western Conference. They host the Boston Celtics who are just as hot as they are, but the Celtics are slight road favorites despite the Nuggets having a 23-10 record at home this season.
With Jamal Murray still out, Monte Morris has been a fantastic point guard for the Nuggets. He is averaging a career-high in points (12.8 per game), assists (4.3), and rebounds (three) this season. Nikola Jokic is competing for another MVP award, but Morris has been fantastic in the starting point guard role.
Morris had a floor game last time out, but in his previous eight games, Morris averaged 10.3 points and 4.6 assists per game while shooting a ridiculous 56.5% from the field. Morris has had four or more assists in eight of his last 10 games. Hitting 80% of this prop at plus-money provides so much value.
The matchup against the Celtics is a tough one. They lead the league in Defensive Rating, allowing a league-best 103.6 points per game. They also allow only 21.5 assists per game which is also a league high this season.
Our model has Morris projected for 4.6 assists tonight. Seeing this prop at plus-money on several sites is a bit crazy seeing as though Morris has hit this so frequently. Take this prop now before it moves any higher.
Scottie Barnes, Over 4.5 Assists (+100)
|76ers vs. Raptors||76ers -6.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Toronto Raptors have climbed all the way to the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference and remain just 1.5 games back of the last non-play-in game playoff spot. This will be a tough road game against the 76ers tonight.
What will make tonight much tougher is the Raptors are without their point guard Fred VanVleet. He has missed a few games recently, so they are fine playing without him. Scottie Barnes will start at point guard for the Raptors.
In the 10 games that Barnes has played without VanVleet this season, he has averaged 5.1 assists per game. In his most recent game starting at point guard, Barnes finished with 10 assists. He has upside for a ton of assists tonight.
The only downside is this game is going to be played at an extremely slow Pace. The 76ers and Raptors both rank in the bottom five of Pace this season. This game features the lowest total on the slate, but is still at a 219-point total.
This is a prop where you can take alternative lines at to try and take a big advantage of Barnes starting at point guard. This 4.5 assist prop is already at even-money, but taking it up to 5.5 or even 7.5 assists tonight is intriguing.
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