Sunday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Expect Butler to Create (Sept. 6)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler.
- Sunday's NBA slate features Heat-Bucks and Rockets-Lakers.
- Each game lends itself to a prop bet from each team.
- Reed Wallach breaks down the best prop from the Bucks, Heat, Rockets, and Lakers below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Sunday’s player props come from both games:
- Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers at 8:30 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
The Prop: Under 5.5 Assists (+110)
Middleton has played the role of facilitator in the past two games for the Bucks, posting assist totals of eight and seven. With elimination on the horizon, I expect to see a more aggressive Middleton hunting for his shot and trying to get the Milwaukee offense going. Considering that Giannis Antetokounmpo was spotted limping after practice yesterday, expect Middleton to be relied on to shoot. At plus money, the FantasyLab projections forecast that Middleton will post 4.8 assists, giving this a bet rating of 9/10.
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
The Prop: Over 4.5 Assists (-139)
We match a Milwaukee wing’s assist prop with a Miami wing’s assist prop. The difference between Middleton’s facilitating and Butler’s facilitating is that Butler’s creation feels part of the offense. The Heat have feasted on Milwaukee’s drop coverage, and it has led to open corner 3s time and time again. Up 3-0, there are not many adjustments for the Bucks to make in order to slow down this Miami offense, and Butler is at the focal point of it. With six assists in his past two games, it’s easy to see the Heat continuing to stay hot from deep with Butler being the primary creator for the offense. Running the pick-and-roll, Butler has been found own shot as well as his teammates spotting up. I see value in taking Butler’s over on assists up to five at -110.
Rajon Rondo, Los Angeles Lakers
The Prop: Under 8 Points (-125) (bet365)
In his first game back from hand surgery, Rondo played in 24 minutes and scored eight points. However, the Lakers lost in convincing fashion in Game 1, with one of the most notable moments coming when LeBron James was seen complaining about the lack of spacing on the floor.
The Lakers are going to need to adjust to the Rockets’ super small lineup, and that may mean reduced minutes for the recently-activated Rondo. Rondo’s inability to shoot will counteract his strong defense, and the Lakers are going to need more shooters on the floor to get the paint open for LeBron and Anthony Davis. Our FantasyLabs numbers project Rondo for 6.9 points, and I would play this under 8 to -140 because I think there may be fewer minutes allotted for Rondo in Game 2.
Robert Covington, Houston Rockets
The Prop: Over 10.5 Points (-122)
With Anthony Davis reportedly saying he would slide up to play center to help the Lakers’ chances of winning, Covington becomes more of a scoring threat. The Rockets forward has become accustomed to his frontcourt role on the team alongside PJ Tucker and now may get a leaner man marking him. That would allow Covington to take his man out beyond the arc or crash the glass for easy putbacks. Despite dropping only six points in Game 1, Covington was in the scoring column more often in the first round, including multiple games over 20 points. While all matchups aren’t created equal, Davis moving up to the five can give Covington a mismatch that he can reap the benefits of. FantasyLabs agrees with this notion, projecting Covington for 13.7 points in Game 2, and gives this bet rating a 10 out of 10. I like Covington over 10.5 points up to -150.