NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Picks for Tuesday Night, Headlined by Damian Lillard (November 9)
Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Damian Lillard
Monday’s 8-game slate did not disappoint. Steph Curry went nuclear with a 50-point, 10 assist masterpiece against the Hawks. Melo turned back the clock to knock down seven three’s in an OT win over the Hornets and the Nuggets wanted all the smoke against the Heat. NBA Twitter anxiously awaits the next phase of the Jokic brothers versus Morris twins saga, so make sure to pencil in the rematch on November 29th because that’ll be must-see TV.
The NBA is pretty light on Tuesday, with only three games on the docket. Philly is playing at home on the backend of a back-to-back set against the Bucks. And the final two games feature the Hawks (also on a back-to-back) traveling to Utah along with Blazers taking on the Clippers for the nightcap.
Let’s dive into today’s props!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Bobby Portis over 7.5 rebounds (-134)
|Bucks vs. Sixers||Sixers + 6.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET|
The Bucks take on a shorthanded Sixers squad that will be without Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris. Portis has gradually seen an uptick in minutes over his last four games, seeing his minutes grow from 19 to 31 in Sunday’s loss to the Wizards. Brook Lopez and Khris middleton remain out, so he’s slated to start at PF again, boosting his opportunity on Tuesday night.
Portis is a per-minute beast, so when he’s on the floor, he produces. FantasyLabs projects Portis to get 31 minutes, and when receiving 30-39 minutes, he’s averaging 9.7 rebounds per game in his career. He comes into Tuesday’s contest with over 7.5 rebounds in three straight games, and 60% of games played this year.
Bobby P ranks second on the Bucks in rebound chances per game with 13.6 and averages 7.4 rebounds per game through five games. The Sixers frontcourt is extremely thin, so Portis should clean the glass with relative ease with Philly playing on the back-to-back.
Our action projection tool has Portis pulling down 10.2 rebounds, and with a bet quality rating of 10 out of 10, this is my best bet for the over.
Rudy Gobert over 26.5 points + rebounds (-105)
|Hawks vs. Jazz||Jazz -8|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET|
The Jazz face an Atlanta Hawks team coming off a 14-point loss last night thanks to Steph Curry going berserk. It doesn’t get any easier for the Hawks – as they’ve lost five of their last six games against Utah. Rudy Gobert also owns Clint Capela. And 26.5 points + rebounds feels too low for the Frenchman.
In their last four matchups, Gobert is averaging 30.75 points + rebounds against Capela. Gobert has gone over 26.5 P+R in 8-of-10 games this season and one of which included a 13-point, 15 rebound performance against the Hawks last week.
He’s in the midst of a career year with averages of 15.2 points and 16.1 rebounds per game. There may be some risk considering the Jazz are 8-point favorites, but he can achieve this line in under 33 minutes (FantasyLabs projects him for 32.27 min).
He’s scored between 10-19 points in 60% of his games, along with grabbing 15-20+ rebounds in 70% of his games. Gobert has a ridiculous 24.9 rebound chances per contest through 10 games. Fire up the big man to do it again as our action projection tool has Gobert totaling 30 points + rebounds.
Take the over.
Damian Lillard under 8.5 assists (-145)
|Blazers vs. Clippers||Clippers +2.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET|
Lillard has yet to find his groove this season. Through 10 games, he’s averaging a career-low 18.5 points per game. However, he’s been dishing out 8.5 assists per game, which would be a career-high. We know his beef with the Clippers goes deep, and his heroic performances in the Playoffs, I can’t get behind getting that many assists on the road against a formidable opponent.
The last time Lillard registered over 8.5 assists against the Clippers was March 12, 2019. Since then, he’s faced the Clippers seven times, and he has yet to sniff 8.5 assists in any of those games. Over that span of seven games versus the Clippers, he’s averaged 5.3 assists. Now, Dame has cleared 8.5 assists in 5-of-10 games this year. There’s a path to Dame getting to nine dimes as his potential assists sit at 14.9 per game, but Portland will need his scoring – much like last game where he dropped 25 points with six assists in a 19-point victory on October 29.
Our action projection tool has Lillard distributing 7.8 assists, so I’m taking the under on his assist prop but hoping to see him drop plenty of buckets.