NBA Player Prop & Pick: Fade Markelle Fultz in Magic vs. Grizzlies (March 28)

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Magic vs.

Grizzlies

Markelle Fultz, Under 15.5 Points

After a rocky start to his professional career, Markelle Fultz has rounded into form in his fifth season. Functioning as the lead guard for the Magic, Fultz has put up career numbers across the board, including 13.9 points per game.

However, I’m looking to fade Fultz on his points line of 15.5 in a tough matchup against the Grizzlies.

Fultz has had some big games, which has boosted his average, but he’s failed to clear this line in nine of 16 games since the All-Star break. Garnering most of his points out of the pick and roll (as a team, the Magic are sixth in frequency of shot attempts by pick and roll ball-handlers), Fultz should struggle mightily tonight.

The Grizzlies are the NBA’s premier defense against pick and roll ball-handlers, allowing the fewest points per possession to this play type. Against all teams in the top six of this metric, Fultz has stayed under this points line in eight of nine games (in regulation).

Overall against point guards, the Grizzlies allow the sixth-fewest points per game and also the third-highest percentage of points via the 3-pointer. Fultz is not a strong shooter from the outside, only making 22 of his 77 shots from long range (29%).

It should be a grind for Fultz from a scoring perspective tonight. I have the University of Washington product projected at 13 points and would play this line down to under 14.5.

Pick: Markelle Fultz Under 15.5 Points (-115 | Play to 14.5)

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