NBA Player Prop & Pick: Bet Mark Williams in Spurs vs. Hornets

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Before heading off on their All-Star break, the Charlotte Hornets will visit the San Antonio Spurs in a matchup featuring a slate-high 241 pointstotal set by oddsmakers.

It is safe to assume a lot of offense will be on display, making me love the value of player props’ overs in this game tonight.

Mark Williams was one of the biggest winners of the trade deadline, with the departure of Mason Plumlee clearing up room to be unleased in the offense. Over the last three games since being inserted into the starting lineup, Williams is averaging 18.0 points and rebounds on 27.3 minutes played per game.

The rookie averages 24.0 points and rebounds per 30 minutes, but we have yet to have a chance to see his upside due to some tough previous matchups.

In this span, Williams combined for 23 points + rebounds against a Celtics defense permitting the fifth-fewest points in the paint (47.2), got himself in foul trouble against MVP-candidate Nikola Jokic, and combined for 20 points and rebounds against the Hawks being able to convert on only 29% of his team-high 17 rebound chances.

Tonight’s game is the perfect time to buy low. Not only are the Spurs allowing a league-high 122.7 points per game, but they are also allowing the third most points in the paint ever since Jakob Poeltl left the team – noteworthy, considering Williams takes 96.1% of his shots less than from less than 10 feet.

Players of Williams' caliber destroyed this defense recently. That includes Detroit’s Jalen Duran, who combined for 47 points and rebounds; Atlanta’s Clint Capela, who scored 26 points and rebounds; and Cleveland’s Jarett Allen, who netted 28 points and rebounds.

We have yet to see a ceiling game for Mark Williams, but the breakout game should happen tonight. Oddsmakers are giving us a low line, and I would take this prop up even at 22.5 if you cannot get this in.