NBA Player Prop & Pick: Fade Keldon Johnson in Grizzlies vs Spurs

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Memphis Grizzlies vs.

San Antonio Spurs

Keldon Johnson Under 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

In what’s been a lost season for the San Antonio Spurs, Keldon Johnson has emerged as their go-to guy. The Olympic gold-medalist is averaging a career-high 29.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA), albeit for a team with aspirations of the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft.

Even with elevated production as the Spurs’ alpha, I’m on board to fade Johnson in a tough matchup tonight.

The Kentucky alum will go toe-to-toe with a Grizzlies team that rates second in defensive efficiency this season. Johnson hasn’t fared well in these tougher spots this season, failing to clear this PRA line in 12 of 17 matchups against the NBA’s top-10 defenses.

Individually, Johnson will get a healthy dose of the Grizzlies' defensive stalwart on the perimeter, Dillon Brooks. The pesky forward ranks in the 96th percentile of defensive plus-minus (per Dunks and Threes), and is part of the reason Johnson has shot a combined 10-for-32 from the field in his two previous games against the Grizzlies.

Plus, in an effort to tank for a top draft pick, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich has lowered the minutes floor for all of his rotation players. With the Spurs coming into this one as 8.5-point underdogs (per DraftKings, as of publishing), the potential for a negative game-script could keep Johnson on the bench.

I have the four-year veteran projected at 28 PRA tonight, and would play this line down to under 30.5 PRA.

Pick: Keldon Johnson Under 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120, DraftKings). Playable Down To 30.5