Tuesday NBA Player Prop Picks: Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr. & Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Dec. 26)
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Yesterday, we began the week with a sweep on Christmas Day, and all three player prop bets came relatively sweat-free. We will look to continue that success with three more plays today. We begin in Detroit, where the Pistons have a chance to be on a side of history in which no one wants to take part.
On Saturday, the Nets handed their Pistons their 26th consecutive loss in Brooklyn. Tonight they will square off in Detroit, and the Nets will strive to extend the Pistons' losing streak. Mikal Bridges may play a factor as a facilitator once again.
Last Tuesday marked the return of Ja Morant, who led the Grizzlies to a thrilling victory over the Pelicans. Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. joined Morant in scoring over 20 points. Tonight, I will be backing Jackson Jr. as the Grizzlies look for their fourth straight victory and second straight in New Orleans.
I am looking forward to the Grizzlies vs Pelicans rematch tonight. However, the game of the night is probably Timberwolves vs Thunder, with the teams currently holding the second and third seeds in the West. Minnesota's top-ranked defense will put Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to the test.
NBA Player Prop Picks · Tuesday, Dec. 26
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 7 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Nets vs. Pistons
Mikal Bridges had been in a shooting slump beginning with his return to Phoenix. He snapped out of it on Saturday night with 29 points on 9-for-17 shooting from the field. Moreover, Bridges also had seven assists in that game.
Since joining the Nets, Bridges has faced the Pistons twice. In addition to Saturday's game, he had six assists against the Pistons last April. The Pistons allow the 11th-fewest assists per game this season — but they rank 25th in scoring defense, so the opportunities are there. The Nets put up 126 points versus the Pistons on Saturday night.
Bridges' assists line is 3.5 (-135) as of writing, and four assists has not been a difficult number for Bridges to reach this season. He has hit this line in eight of his last 15 games. Additionally, Bridges was hooked on three assists four times in that span, so he is not far off from a 70% hit rate of late. Nevertheless, he is still nearly at 60% for the season, recording four assists in 16 of 27 games.
Bridges had eight potential assists in Saturday's game, so his teammates were able to convert nearly all of his chances. If he has eight potential assists again tonight, we would need his teammates to convert just half of them for him to have four assists. However, if you want to back Bridges for six assists against the Pistons for the third straight game, you can take that at +310 on FanDuel.
Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Assists (-135)
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
It is hard to find a prop hitting at a 90% clip at nearly even money. That is what Jaren Jackson Jr. has done of late, hitting the current line of over 18.5 points in nine of his last 10 games. Jackson Jr. averages 21.4 points per game this season and has cleared 18.5 points in 18 of 28 games.
Now with Ja Morant back, I am not expecting Jackson Jr. to score 37, 41, or 44 points tonight like he has done in three of his past 10 games. However, Jackson Jr. also benefits from Morant being back in the lineup, because he is a phenomenal passer. Additionally, Morant is the player for whom teams are building their game plans — as opposed to Jackson Jr. or Bane now.
Since Morant's return, Jackson Jr. has scored 20 points in all three games, averaging 21.6 per game in the process. He had 24 points against this same Pelicans team last Tuesday. He has scored 20 points in three of his last five games against the Pelicans, including a 40-point performance last April.
The main concern is Jackson Jr. getting himself into foul trouble against Zion Williamson. In last week's game, Williamson drew three early fouls and ended up being a non-factor most of the night. Jackson Jr. played a hand in that as he attempted 15 free throws.
Should Jackson Jr. keeps his fouls to a minimum, I like his chances of scoring 20 points again tonight. You can also back him for 25 at +340 on FanDuel.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 18.5 Points (-113)
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Timberwolves vs. Thunder
In what may have been my best call of the season thus far, last night we faded Tyrese Maxey for 32 points. Maxey did not score in the first half, and he finished with just 12 points on the night. Now, I certainly did not expect him to shoot 4-for-20, but I took the under because the number was simply too high. The same applies for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight.
One of the first things that stands out about Gilgeous-Alexander is how frequently he lands between 30 and 33 points. Since the start of last season, Gilgeous-Alexander has landed between that range in 30 of 96 games. That may make this line sweaty. He has scored 35 points in just six of 26 games (23%) this season, including just two of his last 10 games.
Gilgeous-Alexander has also scored 35 points in just one of his last five games against Minnesota. Again, three of those games he scored 32 or 33 points, but he remained under. Additionally, Minnesota ranks first in points allowed and defensive rating. Gilgeous-Alexander will see one of Anthony Edwards or Jaden McDaniels much of the night. Edwards, in particular, may be a bit motivated facing another young rising superstar.
Minnesota is also second in 2-point percentage defense and ranks sixth in free throw attempts allowed. Gilgeous-Alexander primarily operates in the midrange area and averages more than eight free throws per game.
In the last meeting, Gilgeous-Alexander hit the over against Minnesota, because the line was 31.5 points. I believe this number should be 31.5 or 32.5 tonight, so we are getting two points of value at PointsBet.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 34.5 Points (-120)
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